Key Takeaway
- The 2027 Social Security COLA will be 3.4 or 3.5 percent. The law averages July, August, and September CPI-W against the Q3 2025 base of 317.265; July (327.104) and August (328.481) are already published. September needs to rise at least 0.17 percent for 3.5, and it fell 0.12 percent for 3.3, which nobody forecasts.
- Either number is the largest raise since the 8.7 percent paid in 2023. At 3.5 percent, the average retired worker ($2,085.98) gets about $73 a month; the widely quoted $67.90 is 3.5 percent of the all-beneficiary average, a different figure.
- The Medicare Trustees project the standard Part B premium rising $6.60 to $209.50 (3.25 percent), so a 3.5 percent COLA would be the first raise since 2023 to outpace the premium. The average retired worker would keep about $66 of the $73.
- Part B is the soft number: CMS sets the final premium in November and has landed above the Trustees' estimate before. The hold-harmless rule keeps the increase from exceeding your COLA in dollars.
- Key dates: BLS releases September CPI and SSA announces the COLA on October 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The new amount hits the December benefit paid in January 2027. Medicare open enrollment runs October 15 through December 7.
The raise is set by a three-number average, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics has published two of them. September decides the last tenth of a point, and for once Medicare shouldn't eat most of it.
Every October the same ritual: the Social Security Administration announces next year's cost-of-living adjustment at 8:30 in the morning, and every outlet spends the three weeks before it quoting the Senior Citizens League's guess. The guess this year is 3.5 percent. It is a fine guess, but the Social Security COLA 2027 number is not a forecast anyone needs to outsource. The law sets it from the average of three monthly inflation readings, July, August and September, and two of the three are printed. They already put the raise at 3.4 or 3.5 percent. September decides which tenth, and Medicare decides how much of it you keep, which is the part the estimates skip.
The formula and the two numbers we have
The adjustment equals the percentage increase in the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, not seasonally adjusted, for the third quarter of this year over the third quarter of the last year a COLA was paid. The Q3 2025 average was 317.265. July 2026 came in at 327.104 and August at 328.481, which is 3.54 percent above the base on its own. The result is rounded to the nearest tenth.
Plug in September and the whole thing resolves:
| If September's CPI-W does this | Q3 average | Raw increase | 2027 COLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falls 0.2% | 327.803 | 3.32% | 3.3% |
| Flat at August's 328.481 | 328.022 | 3.39% | 3.4% |
| Rises 0.2% | 328.241 | 3.46% | 3.5% |
| Rises 0.4% (August's own pace) | 328.460 | 3.53% | 3.5% |
| Rises 0.5% | 328.569 | 3.56% | 3.6% |
The thresholds are narrow. September needs to rise at least 0.17 percent for the COLA to round up to 3.5, and at least 0.46 percent to reach 3.6. It would have to fall 0.12 percent to drop to 3.3, which is why nobody is forecasting that. The CPI-W rose 0.4 percent in August alone, gasoline is still carrying the Iran premium, and the Fed raised rates on September 16 because prices kept climbing. Flat is the low case. Call it 3.5, with 3.4 the live alternative, and treat 3.6 as the outcome that needs a hot month.
A 3.4 or a 3.5 would each be the largest adjustment since the 8.7 percent paid in 2023, beating 3.2, 2.5 and 2.8 in the three years since. That framing will lead every headline on October 14. It is true and it is not the useful number.
What it means in dollars
The Social Security Administration's own July snapshot puts the average retired worker's benefit at $2,085.98 and the average across all 71 million beneficiaries at $1,940.08. The Senior Citizens League's widely quoted "$67.90 a month" is 3.5 percent of the second figure. If you are a retired worker, your number is closer to $73.
| Monthly benefit now | At 3.4% | At 3.5% | At 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,200 | $40.80 | $42.00 | $43.20 |
| $1,940 (all-beneficiary average) | $65.96 | $67.90 | $69.84 |
| $2,086 (retired-worker average) | $70.92 | $73.01 | $75.10 |
| $3,000 | $102.00 | $105.00 | $108.00 |
| $4,018 (2026 maximum at full retirement age) | $136.61 | $140.63 | $144.65 |
Those are gross. Most people over 65 never see the gross, because the Medicare Part B premium comes out of the payment before it lands.
The Part B bite should be small this year
This is where 2026 went wrong. The COLA was 2.8 percent, about $56 for the average retired worker, and the standard Part B premium jumped from $185.00 to $202.90, a $17.90 increase of 9.7 percent. Medicare took roughly a third of the raise before it arrived.
For 2027 the Medicare Trustees Report projects a standard premium of $209.50, up $6.60, or 3.25 percent. Against a 3.5 percent COLA that leaves the average retired worker keeping $66.41 of a $73.01 raise, about 91 percent. Someone on $1,200 keeps $35.40 of $42.00. Someone at the maximum keeps $134 of $141. If the projection holds, 2027 would be the first year since 2023 in which the raise outpaces the premium in percentage terms.
| Year | COLA | Standard Part B premium | Part B increase | Raise vs premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 8.7% | $164.90 | down $5.20 | Raise won |
| 2024 | 3.2% | $174.70 | up $9.80 (5.9%) | Premium won |
| 2025 | 2.5% | $185.00 | up $10.30 (5.9%) | Premium won |
| 2026 | 2.8% | $202.90 | up $17.90 (9.7%) | Premium won |
| 2027 (projected) | 3.4 to 3.5% | $209.50 | up $6.60 (3.25%) | Raise should win |
The projection is the soft number here. The Trustees estimate in the spring; the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services sets the actual premium separately, usually in November, and it has landed above the estimate before. In 2021 the Trustees projected $158.50 for the following year and CMS set $170.10. Two protections limit the damage if that repeats. The hold-harmless rule bars the Part B increase from exceeding your COLA in dollars for most beneficiaries, so the raise can be swallowed but not reversed. And Part D's 2027 terms are already final: a $700 deductible and a $2,400 cap on out-of-pocket drug costs.
Two things that don't move with the COLA
The income thresholds that make Social Security taxable, $25,000 for a single filer and $32,000 for a couple in combined income, were set in 1984 and have never been indexed. Every COLA nudges more retirees over them. The partial offset is the $6,000 deduction for filers 65 and older created in last year's tax law, available for 2025 through 2028 and phasing out above $75,000 of modified income single and $150,000 joint. If a raise pushes you toward the line, the deduction is the lever, and it is worth checking your withholding in January rather than in April. Retirees drawing from both Social Security and an IRA have a second lever in which account the year's withdrawals come from, which is the practical side of the Roth versus traditional question.
Separately, if your 2025 income was high enough to trigger Medicare's income-related premium surcharge, your 2027 Part B bill is set from that return, not from the COLA. The raise and the surcharge are two different letters. The taxable maximum for people still working moves on a third track entirely, the national average wage index, and SSA announces that figure the same morning.
The calendar
BLS releases September's CPI on Wednesday, October 14, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and SSA posts the COLA the same morning. The new amount applies to the December benefit, which arrives in January 2027; SSI recipients see theirs in the December 31 payment. Medicare's open enrollment runs October 15 through December 7, and the final Part B premium usually follows in November, so the last piece of the 2027 check arrives after the window to change plans has been open for weeks. Pick the plan on the assumption Part B lands near $209.50 and budget for a few dollars more.
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| October 14, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET | BLS releases September CPI; SSA announces the 2027 COLA and the new taxable maximum |
| October 15 to December 7, 2026 | Medicare open enrollment |
| November 2026 (typical) | CMS sets the final 2027 Part B premium |
| December 31, 2026 | SSI recipients receive the first adjusted payment |
| January 2027 | Retirees receive the December benefit at the new rate, net of the new Part B premium |
Then do the one thing the headline number can't do for you: take your own benefit, multiply by 0.035, subtract $6.60, and that is the raise. Everything else on October 14 is commentary. If the net figure is more than your month needs, the difference deserves better than a checking account, and the savings accounts paying 4 to 5 percent are the boring right answer. The finance desk will run the final number the morning it drops.
Frequently asked questions
What will the Social Security COLA be for 2027?
3.4 or 3.5 percent. The COLA is the percentage increase in the average CPI-W for July, August, and September 2026 over the Q3 2025 average of 317.265, rounded to the nearest tenth. July (327.104) and August (328.481) are published. If September's CPI-W is flat, the COLA is 3.4 percent; if it rises at least 0.17 percent, 3.5 percent; it would need to rise 0.46 percent for 3.6 or fall 0.12 percent for 3.3. Given August's 0.4 percent monthly rise, 3.5 is the most likely outcome with 3.4 the live alternative.
When will the 2027 COLA be announced?
Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the same morning BLS releases the September Consumer Price Index. SSA also announces the new taxable maximum for workers that morning. The increase applies to the December 2026 benefit, which is paid in January 2027. SSI recipients see the new amount in the December 31, 2026 payment.
How much more will I get per month with a 3.5 percent COLA?
Multiply your current benefit by 0.035. The average retired worker ($2,085.98) gets about $73.01; the all-beneficiary average ($1,940.08) gets $67.90, which is the figure most headlines quote; a $1,200 benefit gets $42; a $3,000 benefit gets $105; and the 2026 maximum at full retirement age ($4,018) gets $140.63. At 3.4 percent, each figure is about 3 percent lower. Those are gross amounts before the Medicare Part B premium is deducted.
How much will Medicare Part B cost in 2027?
The Medicare Trustees Report projects a standard premium of $209.50, up $6.60 (3.25 percent) from $202.90 in 2026. CMS sets the final figure separately, usually in November, and has exceeded the Trustees' estimate before (in 2021 the projection was $158.50 and CMS set $170.10). The hold-harmless rule prevents the Part B increase from exceeding your COLA in dollars for most beneficiaries. Part D's 2027 terms are final: a $700 deductible and a $2,400 out-of-pocket cap.
Will the 2027 COLA be the biggest in years?
Yes. Either 3.4 or 3.5 percent would be the largest since the 8.7 percent paid in 2023, beating 3.2 percent (2024), 2.5 percent (2025), and 2.8 percent (2026). More usefully, if the Part B projection holds, 2027 would be the first year since 2023 in which the raise outpaces the premium increase in percentage terms, leaving the average retired worker with about 91 percent of the gross raise.
Does the COLA make more of my Social Security taxable?
It can. The combined-income thresholds that make benefits taxable ($25,000 single, $32,000 joint) were set in 1984 and are not indexed, so every COLA pushes more retirees over them. The partial offset is the $6,000 deduction for filers 65 and older, available for tax years 2025 through 2028 and phasing out above $75,000 of modified income (single) or $150,000 (joint). Check your withholding in January if the raise moves you toward a threshold.
