The formula is (probability during 1 year) raise to the power to N years. In this case, 0.98^34.

It also means you'd need to take it (properly) 34 years straight for you to have a 50% chance of failure. And it would take 69 years for you to equal your odds of getting pregnant without protection in 1 year (75% probability of pregnancy)

It doesn't matter what you think. This isn't a philosophical debate on what is and isn't right or moral. It's about what is LEGAL. You do NOT get to decide what is and is not illegal. Judges do, and they get that power by demonstrating a working understanding of written and case law (a.k.a. precedence).

I'm rude because this is our entire discussion:

I'm not sure I quite get this joke. I am sure I'm happier that way.

You don't have a single fucking clue how law or the constitution works. Do you have a right to privacy? US Constitution doesn't say you do. Yet the law is understood to grant you that. How? Precedent: the thousands of cases brought to court and discharged via judge or jury.

I'm not sure you understand. I don't need to defend anything. It is the law of the land, accepted by all who matter, particularly multiple supreme courts, not just the current one. The assertion that it is in any way illegal or unsettled is verging on the absurd. If you're going to attack this kind of program, you…

Article 1 section 8 (specifically commerce clause and the part about general welfare) the, 16th Amendment and over 200 years of court precedence.

I don't, but the president, as authorized by congress absolutely has the right. Don't like it? Piss off to Somalia, or some other country without a functioning government. WE THE PEOPLE does not mean you get to benefit for everything. You are not being oppressed when some of your money is being used in a way that…

You must lack a sense of irony to declare yourself oppressed by the self righteous, then imply that government exists solely to provide you with direct benefits.

Actually, getting one potential home run (Tesla) and less than half facing bankruptcy, that's actually a pretty good batting percentage for private startup investors. Though, Bain itself mostly concentrates on "distressed assets", already established companies in need of a turnaround. You don't bat 1.000 there either,…

They didn't pick a winner, that's why the money went to 18 different companies, each with differentiating ideas. Of these 18 companies, only half failed, and one, Tesla, appears to have legs. That's not a bad success rate, given that private startup investors do about as well. Which is one of the two keys here. First,…

MW is a bunch of 40 to 100+ ton mechs armed to the teeth with guns lasers and missiles which fight across multiple worlds for glory and cash.

America, FUCK YEAH! Here to save the the motherfuckin Senkakus for Japan despite marginal economic value to any party involved compared to the strategic risks.

No, it's an authoritarian oligarchy with more than a pinch of fascism and mercantilism. But hey, just because the Chinese realized the Cold War is over, doesn't mean you have to, right? Keep pumping out circa 1982 propaganda like a proper Reaganaut.

Your annoyance pleases me. Your belief in quakery amuses me. Your inability to substantiate said quakery combined with your lazy unwillingness to defend your pseudoscience just makes me laugh.

Again, anecdotes are not evidence. Either retract the claim or provide the proof. Don't half-ass it.

I think your inclusion of a photo, just after I thanked someone else for not photo-bombing me, is just f'ing rude. So bite me.

You're the one making the claim, the burden of proof is on you.

Nice story. Thank you for not including photos.