I’m going to be very interested to see what happens in California, because they have a semi-open primary and still a month to go that people can register and change their affiliation (deadline is May 23), and they have 546 delegates.

They are though, in large numbers - in some cases better than Obama, particularly in the states that count most. And when independents–who are always part of Democratic state wins in presidential elections–are factored in, he almost always wins.

Regardless of open/closed, the three primary (as opposed to caucus)…

Not really. We can’t just assume that she has the blue states in the bag, or that she’ll get enough of the popular vote to make any potential electoral issues inarguable. The Democrats had tremendous momentum and goodwill in 2008 that she does not have now. There is always that effect of countless idiots who “think…

And Hillary has, and failed. She has a low favorability rating nationally, and among her former constituents. I know that I would not have voted for her for a third term in the New York senate if I’d had any other option.

Seriously? He’s been in the House and then the Senate for going on 30 years and has been re-elected something like 14 times, and he’s often been a minority, which takes guts, which is what the kinds of changes he’s proposing will need. Washington has almost certainly taken whatever toll it’s going to take. Clinton,…

For the record, if you read the whole thread, it seems I had incorrect stats for the number of registered Dems in New York, but that doesn’t change my point substantially–only a fraction of the registered Dems voted for Hillary in the state where she was a senator, and which is reliably blue in presidential elections…

And your smug mansplaining is showing.

No worries, happy to clarify, and thanks for asking.

In any event, still not great numbers for Hillary on the 19th. This is a state with a population of almost 12 million registered voters now, and less than 1/10th voted for her last week - even less than I thought above. From that light, almost as many voted for Bernie, and as I’ve said elsewhere, he stands a better…

I know – that was my point – re-read above. Two days ago that was not a 404 and had a breakdown of the voters in each state during the Presidential election in 2012. I was having trouble finding any US sources that compared lots of states in one place, as opposed to having to dig up each state’s BOE data separately.…

Also, great alias!

I’m just worried about a scenario where there is low turnout in the blue states (NY, her “home” state is a bellweather of this - 50% of the party faithful, with only 50-ish% for her is not good), she only flips some of the swing states, we get none of the electors for her support in the South, and the whole goddamn…

Please lower your smug deprecation threshhold, I never came for you, you came after me after I expressed a legitimate and reasonable concern - and with a lot of all-caps shouting, I might add. I’m a long-term commenter on this site, a scholar, a dedicated voter, and a 19-year registered Democrat, not some paid troll,…

As someone who’s been a registered Democrat for 19 years, with parents who’ve been registered since the 1960s- one of whom was a political appointee - and both of whom voted for Bernie, I have to question why she or you has the right to determine what “Democratic” values are? Many of the reforms that Bernie is…

Because she’s on the record in 2009 saying she’s still proud of being a “Goldwater Girl” and is informed by that breed of conservatism, and also seeks advice from figures from that disastrous era of politics, like Henry Kissinger.

Why do you need to believe this to the extent of refuting expert political commentators and data scientists who’ve measured it in favor of your own research?

I mean, I really can’t even with the people who say they’re going to “move to Canada if Trump wins.” We could be Canada.

Trump has terrible favorability ratings, true. But there’s a well of Hillary hate on the right – which predates me or any of my views, and which I don’t agree with at all – which he will absolutely use to dog whistle to his followers and drum up their numbers. Independents who might vote for Bernie will probably just…

Did you look at the data science I posted above? You don’t have to take my word for it; I have no interest in making her out to be Republican if it weren’t quantifiably true. There are plenty of people who have dedicated themselves to scientific analysis of her record versus Bernie’s, and her stated positions versus…

I’ve never made claims that Bernie’s record is spotless, but generally when he’s voted for or against bills that might otherwise seem out of line with his general stance, it’s because of provisions tacked on to them that were either important, or to his mind completely undermined the purpose of the bill. There are…