Interesting - I just checked out the data from November 7, October 31, and every Monday going back to August 29. On average, Predictit had Clinton 1.36% more likely than 538's polls-plus model to win. But there were two points - November 7 and September 26 - when the betting markets were over 10% more confident than…
TreeRol
treerol
Instead of losing 9 Senate seats, they might only lose 4.
I'd be interested to see them side-by-side. Every time he mentioned where all of the models were, the betting markets were right with his model.
What's interesting is that the betting markets followed his model, so he didn't really have a lot of upside.
Leave some blame for the Electoral College. We may be headed for our 2nd election in the past 5 where the person with more votes loses.
Oh fuck, I missed this last week. So here you go:
Election Day is November 5, 2024. It's the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, which, in most cases, is the first Tuesday of the month.
Mr. Creosote all over again.
The show takes place in 1962, although the point of divergence from our reality was in 1933.
The Man With the Iron Heart was a real person: https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…
Well, if you cover the entire stripper in Saran Wrap…
Wait, you need defense in these fights? Does that mean that even if you choose not to fight, others will choose to fight you?
Friend of the A.V. Club Basia Bulat released a song called Infamous a couple of months ago, and it's fantastic. Might be my favorite new song of the year.
Stand By You is a better song than Fight Song, and it's a shame it hasn't made as much of an impact. Some of Platten's other stuff from this year is even better - Congratulations is my current favorite - and I think her album is going to be excellent.
Don't make her angry - she will give you the pursing of a lifetime.
No, but we New Hampshirites have a long and storied history of independent thought! That's why we tend to go along with whatever the national trend happens to be. Obama? Sure, we're on board. Tea Party madness? Supermajority in the state House, with a side of Kelly Ayotte! Trump? Oh, you bet your ass we're in on…
Unless they are informing you that the devil is, in fact, a loser.
"I'm just struggling to find something that's replaced these things"
He did refill about halfway in.
Thanks for this - I've been working out by running for 20 minutes (high intensity) and then doing a round of lifting. I'm a thin guy with a goal of overall fitness, but mostly cardio (I'm a runner at heart) - the lifting is mostly to tone and have some kind of functional strength.