gearoiddubh2
GearoidDubh(LostHisBurnerKey)
gearoiddubh2

The Obama peace prize was dumb, though he at least tried to live up to the ideals. He fell short, in some cases by a huge amount (Yemen for example). But even if that was a mistake he’s still miles ahead of Trump, who can’t even pay lip service to the ideals behind the prize.

Given the general anger in the base and Trump’s poor approval numbers, I read that as far more likely to motivate people to vote out Republicans who can be called “corrupt” 24/7 during the election cycle. I don’t see a major risk there. Most people I’ve seen discuss impeachment are realistic, which means significant

Supposedly, Pelosi and Schiff coordinated their recent statements after the (terribly named) WhistleblowerGate stuff came out. It’s possible Pelosi is deliberately being the slow-walker to give Democrats space to maneuver if necessary. I question the necessity of that, and the damage her posture is doing to morale in

Never once have I seen any person use the term “shitlibs” and have anything of substance to say or contribute. 

Already happened. I’ve been seeing those since the last debate. Mostly from voters who seem to prefer Sanders, though it’s spreading a bit now. 

According to some of the various news articles from journalists who’ve followed her, she’s pretty energetic and active. I hadn’t thought about it, but that is something that will probably subconsciously impress voters. 

Yeah, but the momentum from losing the first state or two can be really damaging. How much of his advantage in South Carolina with black voters is soft, based in name ID rather than policy? I don’t know if we have any good data to make a guess, but that’s a key question. 

If they were launched from Iran, they didn’t go over the gulf. They overflew Kuwaiti or Iraqi airspace and entered behind most of the Saudi AA defenses. Patriot defenses apparently have a 120 degree view. Beyond that, cruise missiles tend to fly at an altitude difficult for ground-based radar to pick up. So it’s

The evidence I’ve seen leads me to that conclusion (static is a bit much, I’d say less variable). Trump’s core voters are being bombarded. They’re constantly under partisan stimulus. Maintaining them in that state is a strategy to overcome Trump’s unpopularity, though the raw numbers suggest that may not work. Trump

Dems or lean Dems staying home is a serious concern. If there was evidence they were underwater on impeachment I’d absolutely agree with you. But that’s my point. Those are who you need to be paying attention to. The majority of self-identified independents are lean Dem or lean Rep. The ones that are truly in play

I’ve seen it as high as 50-45 in favor. That poll is the lowest I’ve seen recently by at least 5 points. More often it’s been around 45 in favor, with variation in the “don’t know” and opposed categories. But as others have pointed out, Nixon’s numbers were better than that before impeachment proceedings began. The

I think it’s risk-aversion, yes. The Clinton era elite especially, and those who defined their political identities in that milieu, are incredibly risk averse. They’re terrified of being seen as too liberal. It’s a position that made a lot more sense in 1992 than it does now. But they’re mostly older, long in power,

The Politico/Morning Consult poll seems to have consistently lower numbers than other polls on a number of issues like this. Other polling has had essentially the opposite reading, and the variation is enough that I think there’s a significant soft middle of people who are undecided and react based on recent triggers,

It’s still a check, because the process is damaging. It hangs an albatross around the necks of Republicans. It activates anti-Trump voters. The spectacle can be the point. Even if it fails, there are political benefits. I see no reason to assume that wasn’t part of the design. I doubt people expected quite the level

Pelosi is wrong. There is NO EVIDENCE that impeachment would “alienate” any in-play voters. There’s quite a bit of evidence it would motivate the voters Democrats want.

That one is gold too. I really couldn’t pick between the two personally.

The WSJ has one of the stories. Now, there are good hard news reporters at WSJ who shouldn’t be lumped in with the garbage ideological opinion page or editorials. But it’s still a solid-right paper. When they publish things damaging to Trump, it must have passed some internal checks because it’s a paper with an

The public evidence suggests a type of missile in the Houthi arsenal called a Quds 1, which has clear design elements based in Iranian missile technology but has never actually been documented within Iran. It’s not impossible the Houthi were able to manufacture them with a little technical help from Iran.

This is mostly a symbolic deployment. Patriot missile batteries already failed at this task, especially if you believe the administration’s claim that the attack originated in Iran. I doubt this deployment is enough to significantly change that.

Now playing

Gundam Iron-Blooded Orphans hit the mark really well, IMO. Really underappreciated.