God knows how

Was that the end goal, in and of itself?

Okay, but:

Right. But if Russia doesn’t do that, if Russia “wins” then what? Obviously we’ll have to pivot.

We’ll see if that gets expressed publicly at any stage. In future though there’s the problem of what to do if Russia successfully either takes Ukraine or forces it to a negotiated settlement, taking those two options off the table.

I wouldn’t pretend otherwise. I know better.

Oil is a worldwide supply issue though. You cut off one major supplier, the price bounces for everybody, regardless of their own importation volume. That’s why it’s been mooning ever since this started, and it’s why Biden’s been calling up Maduro and Raisi - especially after the Saudis and the UAE rebuffed his earlier…

It never did. And the goal was regime change, which didn’t happen.

It’s worth finding the time to read it fully. Especially the part about coercive sanctioning.

Rarely. 28% success rate (Clarke’s figure) between 1980 and 2005, less again with Hufbauer who determined that sanctions were “partly successful” in effecting regime change 21% of the time.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/make-russia-sanctions-effective-again/

Sanctions are proven to have worked more often when there’s an end condition which the sanctioned state can meet in order to remove them. That’s why sanctions with coercive methods work better than solely punitive ones.

I’ve been pointing out for a while that sanctions usually don’t work, but there are other reasons to support a ban on importing oil from Russia unrelated to their invasion of Ukraine, and I’m not sure Bush and Omar are thinking this one through.

No, Russia didn’t really have any colonies in Africa. Britain mainly, Belgium and Germany also.

Depending on whose analysis you prefer (Hufbauer, one third of the time, Pape, only 5% of the time). There’s also the risk of what Erik Sand calls “catastrophic success”

Northern Ireland?

PA were the ones who reported on it first. It’s their paraphrase.

A lot of media stinks these days. Social media has amplified and worsened two of the biggest problems traditional media always had, the need to scoop somebody else and the need to placate important sources even if you know they’re feeding you horseshit. (This may or may not be a great example of the first. One that…

8 Sub-Saharan countries have a larger population than Ukraine, 7 of them larger than Ukraine for territory. Europe is a lot smaller than a lot of us think it is. I blame Mercator maps in schools.

Yeah, that’s more what I mean by politically motivated. You’ve phrased it better.