Despite having prematurely declared himself the victor in several early states...

Outside of those first two states, he was never “so far ahead” of Warren. He rarely polled above her nationally. As for why he did so much better than she did in early states, the simplest explanation is that he understood his lane and his appeal (even if you didn’t), and he generally stuck to a strategy that…

There’s very little chance of “consolidating” Buttigieg’s support ahead of Tuesday. Sure, Biden is likely to receive the lion’s share of Buttigieg’s support, but even that will likely be a plurality or slim majority. Sanders and Warren will both get some of that support—hopefully, Bloomberg will not.

It’s weird how many people seem to have never watched election returns before. Exit polling data is collected all day. In lopsided elections (and nearly 30-point victories count), it’s not that hard to accurately predict a winner based on that data. States are routinely called the minute polls close.

Here you go.

I would like to see the internal information regarding these polls, because I call shenanigans.

The trick about higher turnout and Bernie Sanders is that he’s got to increase Democratic non-voter turnout in a way that offsets the normally reliable Democratic leaning swing voters he’s likely to lose *and* offsets the five to 10 percent of Republican leaning swing voters present polling indicates are more likely…

Say you’re right and that he will increase turnout. Is he increasing turnout across the board, and does increased turnout in every state necessarily mean good news for Democrats? It’s not as clear cut a scenario as you’d like to think. He can increase turnout among young people, but he can also lose support at the…

How does he plan to win back the senate? I mean, putting aside that he claims to be absolutely unwilling to do away with the filibuster (let’s assume he’s lying about that part), how does he plan to go from 47 Democratic senators we currently have to no fewer than 50—knowing that Doug Jones is very likely to lose in…

Domestic violence accusations aside, Johnny Depp has really become a generation’s poster child for how quickly the switch flips on your face when you’ve got decades of substance abuse under your belt. I mean, he’s 56. Somewhere around the age of 50, it’s like he got hit by a truck and required reconstructive surgery.…

Well...”PrimaryWarren” is trending this morning. So I guess she said something last night at a town hall or something that Russian Bots correctly identified as a thing that could be used to manipulate Sanders supporters. What a fun disaster all of this is.

You can claim I’m leaning on an outdated sensibility, but what I’m actually leaning on is a perspective that is supported by evidence. The way Democrats win elections is by gaining both strong minority support and high turnout among white, college educated suburban voters—especially women.

Actually, if you pay attention to polling and demographics, non-voters in rust belt states tend to be whiter and less educated as a whole. Demographically, those are more likely to be Republican voters. While nationally high turnout should favor Democrats over Republicans, we cannot apply this assumption on a state by…

If you look at the internals of the electability polling, those people exist—though not so much between Warren and Sanders. The one advantage over “swing” voters that I’d say Warren has over Sanders is that she doesn’t express outward antipathy toward them.

I find Warren’s focus on Bloomberg really interesting. On the one hand, he’s an easy target for her whose very presence on the stage offers her endless opportunities for deserved zingers. On the other hand, he’s weakening Biden, thereby strengthening Sanders—a guy most people I think still assume Warren generally…

Once you start going gray, it’s not that uncommon for women to get a root treatment every couple of weeks. My wife gets some color done every two to three weeks.

Ultimately, this is a genre that wasn’t all that viable in the 90s and that doesn’t make any sense 20+ years later.

Not to be overly flippant, but that shows what you know.

Your assumption seems to be that most Democrats are not establishment Democrats. That’s not a good assumption. 

First: The front runner doesn’t have a slim lead. He’s behind by two or three delegates. Let’s call it a tie.