I saw that same sign hundreds of times at Browns games in the early 2000s.

It is accurate. There's more than enough data to draw conclusions and build an expected points system upon. The problem is that you're talking about a tiny marginal difference between going for it and punting the closer you get to the orange—like maybe 0.02% victory probability or something. If it's 4th and 3 at your…

Nope, just a blip in the distribution. The larger the sample size the smoother that curve will be. If there were twice as much data I doubt that would happen.

No, it definitely has nothing to do with that. It's based on the success percentage of gaining 3 yards in that situation, not the average number of yards plays net. Very different.

Agree with almost everything but you're totally wrong about RG3 and Kaepernick. If you actually look at Kaepernick's stats he's having a good season despite throwing to a terrible receiving corps. RG3 was rushed back from injury too soon and clearly can't run like he could before Shanahan and Dr. Andrews destroyed his…

LOL. Yeah, because clearly the Jets know the difference between an "NFL Quarterback" and somebody who "just can't throw". I'm a liberal elitist who loves Tebow and all "dual threat" quarterbacks because they add an undeniable mathematical advantage to an offense.

Completion percentage is a meaningless statistic.

Nope. Flynn has a terrible arm, that's why he keeps getting cut. At least Tebow does something exceptionally, which is run the football. He also had the highest completion percentage in the league on deep passes thanks to his ability to move safeties up into the box on every play. Flynn does absolutely nothing at a…

Nah don't bother, he's clearly just another "vile man". No need to dig any deeper than that!

I totally agree that it's an outrage that Flacco be lining up in the wildcat. He should be benched for Tyrod Taylor once and for all so that that extra position on the field can be taken up by a real athlete.

I'm sure that the quarterback position was decided completely on the basis of ability and not on the basis of race. All hail the ultimate meritocracy!

The sample size is too small (and I too would be very curious to see this broken down by type of penalty,) but if the gap between the most and least flag-happy crews were to stay at 40%, I think that's just far too high.

This is the same argument that's used to excuse umpires for applying the strike zone arbitrarily. Granted, there will always be differences between crews and individual officials, but keeping the gap as small as possible should be a goal of rule enforcement for any league.

How is this different from when Kobe Bryant goes to China?

"It's really fucking hard to win all your games."

Tony Sparano?

I don't subscribe to this "less mistakes wins" axiom of yours, mostly because it's so difficult to quantify or prove. Mistakes can take the form of missed tackles, dropped passes, missed assignments, bad routes, etc. Some are more consequential than others, and often which mistake turns out to be the one that everyone…

The aggregate view that coaches should "go for it" more often then they do is unchanged however. Clearly "the book" shouldn't be the only factor in these decisions, but this means that coaches should be even more aggressive then "the book" suggests just as often as they might choose to make a conservative decision…

To fans of the Browns, this is known as the Pat Shurmer Theory of Coaching: Play as safe as possible for as long as possible in the hopes that you may be within one score of winning close to end of the game. Building leads or extending them are sucker plays.

It's funny how "the ultimate meritocracy" that is sports is also pretty much the most racist media environment you'll find in mainstream culture. Sometimes I think that the only reason a lot of white people watch sports is to use it as an excuse to openly hate black people.