The article you took that quote from has nothing to do with predicting anything. It’s entirely about the problems with polls and how Trump was running his campaign. That specific sentence is talking about how the media was jumping on the Trump bandwagon and that they weren’t buying it.

Honestly, I think Silver getting burned so badly by his predictions re: trump during the primary has made him super-cautious—and perhaps overcorrect—about trump’s chances in the general.

In his own words, they don’t make predictions. They just analyze trendlines to tell you what the polls are saying. He has said repeatedly he’s not in the business of making predictions.

Nate Silver’s opinions and what his models produce are completely different things and should be looked at as such.

I spent a bit of time in LA, in the early 80s, it was not uncommon for parents to push their children into the “laps” of grown fucking men. Ugh, the rumors I’ve heard. I had just turned 21, was trying to get into the biz via modeling, with the top modeling agency in LA at the time, and we had to go to parties given…

In his memoir, Corey Feldman said Haim told him someone raped him on the set of Lucas. So I thought of Charlie Sheen (who is in that film), and then laughed because lmao at him being a family man. And then I thought: Martin Sheen...and I was like faaaaaark.

OK, I did a 5 minute “investigation”... Corey Feldman said that “Haim was just 11 when... a man raped him on a movie set”. I checked when Corey Haim was 11, it would be 1983, so I checked which movie of his came out in 1984 and it was “Firstborn” and the A-List Actor that is in it is Robert Downey Jr. I don’t know if…

Maybe she listened to her grandma. It may not be advice that works for everyone, but if it works for them, that’s fine.

I have no idea where the Drake hate comes from. I like his music and find him adorkably charming. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

No one’s happier than Aubrey Graham this morning. He got acknowledged:

Is there something legitimately bad about Drake? I’ll say it- Drake is a catch. Somebody ought to snap him up.

My favourite thing anyone’s every said about Drake:

I sincerely appreciate what Amber Rose is doing for women, which I personally think is a lot. This paragraph is absolute truth:

She posted a picture of it on her Instagram and I dunno y'all, maybe my heart is melting in my old age because even though drake IS the most extra person on the whole entire planet, I still thought it was freaking adorable. I showed all my roomies and they thought so too.

I was reading an article about munchausen by proxy and how the united states is one of the only industrialized countries in the world where it doesn’t get caught almost immediately. It’s because we do we not have a single payer option or a system in place to evaluate based on need (not ability to pay). Doctor shopping…

The problem with this argument is that literally nobody thinks the people of North Korea are somehow “bad.” This isn’t some cultural misunderstanding, nobody’s sitting there going “Gee, man, I don’t know about those 5 year-old North Korean dirt farmers. They seem pretty sketchy.”

I know America’s wang still has a Republican Secretary of State.

Any Bernie Bro who saw Mike Pence’s speech and still plans on voting Jill Stein or writing in Bernie is a Goddamn coward.

Save that for tomorrow!

I mean, that’s why we ran video of him talking.