Yeah, I just got the /S after I clicked publish. Already edited.
whoops
He kind of smack-talked Silver n academic-ese for having such an uncertain model prediction a week before the election though. Should he continue to model, sure. But I think he deserves some skepticism and smack-talk back his way.
As a trans person who is somebody’s child, thanks for being supportive. Hope and grief are a natural part of any transition. I’m glad you’ve been able to find space for both.
Yeah, humans are generally bad at understanding probability and assessing risk. They conflate percentage of predicted vote with percentage chance of winning. Many people probably thought 538 was saying it would be a 70-30 landslide.
Yeah, that’s not the job of a probabilistic modeler. You want an oracle.
Let’s say you wanted to know which halloween candy somebody preferred, snickers or candy corn? You went and asked 30 people, most said they were too busy to answer, but 10 stopped to talk to you. You found out 8 of 10 people like snickers. You predict 80% of people liked snickers (they ask more people in practice, but…
If a doctor said we need more tests. While this test looks good, I’d still give you a 33% chance of cancer. If in the next test confirmed you had cancer, would you call your doctor a quack? Tell him he widely missed the mark? Gave you a false sense of certainty?
Eh, it’s all contextual. You are right, those girls have only cushy career paths ahead of them. However, despite their careers and elite status they will still be racial profiled in stores. That is something you will never experience like a black woman. It even happens to Oprah.
There are actual people that couldn’t get away with being such a jerk even under the delusion it increased your odds. Women. Black men. But what does that even mean having #checkyourprivledge thrown by a 30-something, fully-able, likely-cis, full-beard-sporting white guy. More like #checkoutprivledge.
Ahhhh....isn’t a large refrain from this whole thread about raising our sons better? But as soon as somebody does, you get all pissy. There are good things that come from same-gender friendships, sisterhood/brotherhood. Yes, there is a problem with misogynistic men, and that’s compounded when they are in groups and/or…
My wife has an extensive dildo collection. When we first started dating (early 20s) she would wash them in the kitchen and just keep them in the drying rack. I said “you know, why don’t you dry them in the tub behind the curtain or something”. She said “cause nobody visits my apartment but you”. Fast forward a few…
Thanks! And yes, not Kat in this life or the last. ;)
The terminology around how to classify gender dysphoria is on-going process within the psychological community. It is not considered a mental illness like body dysmorphia or depression, by the vast majority of those that study/treat gender dysphoria. It’s a condition that understandably arises when somebody’s gender…
They provide “elective” treatment in prisons, like knee/hip replacements when the condition causes extreme pain. Gender dysphoria causes extreme psychological distress. Prison psychologists have recommended treatment. Why should it not be medically treated?
The whole thing is very Seattle-like. We like to think we’re post-racial when the truth is 1. It’s easy to have great white/black relations when there are way more white/non-black residents than black residents. 2. Even easier when that incredible minority of black residents live in concentrated communities rendering…
I’m a transgender man and the change in expectations and interactions is a trip.
Yeah, oppression is intersectional AND context specific. There are times, places and situations (e.g. like running to the bus stop because you are late) where being a black woman would be easier than being a black man. Being irrationally feared has complicated consequences. Sure, you could say being a black woman has…
I like it. I’ll bust this out next time we are arguing about our theoretical son.