Yeah, I mean, it sounds like they could also be a vegan. Some people are annoying. Most trans people I know only get upset when people deliberately don’t use their pronouns as a passive aggressive disapproval. It takes some people a long time, if ever, to reconceptualize somebody as a different gender. I read…
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Yeah, you know other trans people, maybe close, maybe just in your life, but you have no idea. A lot of us, like me, read our gender and live stealth. I’m sorry you have a worst person in your life, but don’t hold that against all the people with overlapping characteristics.
1. It never was just about bathrooms. Any student of history can tell you that. 2. It’s the Republicans making the bills. 3. I dare you to not use a public or work bathroom for a year. Just crap in your pants if needed. So easy. These people are just attention seeking. Amirite. You got this.
Yeah, I just got the /S after I clicked publish. Already edited.
whoops
He kind of smack-talked Silver n academic-ese for having such an uncertain model prediction a week before the election though. Should he continue to model, sure. But I think he deserves some skepticism and smack-talk back his way.
As a trans person who is somebody’s child, thanks for being supportive. Hope and grief are a natural part of any transition. I’m glad you’ve been able to find space for both.
Yeah, humans are generally bad at understanding probability and assessing risk. They conflate percentage of predicted vote with percentage chance of winning. Many people probably thought 538 was saying it would be a 70-30 landslide.
Yeah, that’s not the job of a probabilistic modeler. You want an oracle.
Let’s say you wanted to know which halloween candy somebody preferred, snickers or candy corn? You went and asked 30 people, most said they were too busy to answer, but 10 stopped to talk to you. You found out 8 of 10 people like snickers. You predict 80% of people liked snickers (they ask more people in practice, but…
If a doctor said we need more tests. While this test looks good, I’d still give you a 33% chance of cancer. If in the next test confirmed you had cancer, would you call your doctor a quack? Tell him he widely missed the mark? Gave you a false sense of certainty?
Basically, he is using the word prediction in that article differently than this article. It’s like when creationist say “look, even scientists say it’s only a theory!” The language has a different meaning.
Echoing scribble. If you have been listening to the podcast that you must have heard how Nate doesn’t consider his model a prediction, that it’s a forecast. And particularly this year there are enough coin tosses this year he expects his forecast map to likely have misses. When he says prediction, it wasn’t based on a…
If you can’t grasp how words get taken out of context it’s not a surprised you don’t understand statistical modeling.
If you want assured predictions with mixed polling and limited historical data, don’t go to a statistician. His model reflects high uncertainty. It’s a valuable insight for those that are into data science and politics, less so for others.
Eh, it’s all contextual. You are right, those girls have only cushy career paths ahead of them. However, despite their careers and elite status they will still be racial profiled in stores. That is something you will never experience like a black woman. It even happens to Oprah.
There are actual people that couldn’t get away with being such a jerk even under the delusion it increased your odds. Women. Black men. But what does that even mean having #checkyourprivledge thrown by a 30-something, fully-able, likely-cis, full-beard-sporting white guy. More like #checkoutprivledge.
Ahhhh....isn’t a large refrain from this whole thread about raising our sons better? But as soon as somebody does, you get all pissy. There are good things that come from same-gender friendships, sisterhood/brotherhood. Yes, there is a problem with misogynistic men, and that’s compounded when they are in groups and/or…
My wife has an extensive dildo collection. When we first started dating (early 20s) she would wash them in the kitchen and just keep them in the drying rack. I said “you know, why don’t you dry them in the tub behind the curtain or something”. She said “cause nobody visits my apartment but you”. Fast forward a few…