I’m saying, anybody who devotes a significant portion of their time campaigning to get some internet post to the top of a message board, is unquestionably a loser.

Who cares what internet losers think? Just go out into the real world, see how clear it is that nobody cares what a bunch of dorks think, and you will feel better.

I just... I don’t get why this semantic “gotcha” is supposed to negate the very concept of statistics. Silver’s field is termed “Predictive Modeling” in academia. Novak is suggesting that if any “prediction” is wrong, it negates the entire practice. And moreso, he’s cherrypicking the speculative analysis that Silver…

You do know that the weather guy isn’t always right?

That’s... not really the point, Matt. His methodology is sound within the framework that’s given. If you want to argue he skews too heavily towards variance in the bias/variance tradeoff, that would be fair (see Wang at PEC), but that’s not what you’re doing here.

I bet Bill Murray is a huge Aroldis Chapman fan: http://jezebel.com/reminder-your-celebrity-folk-hero-bill-murray-was-once-1746069734