holmes drew conclusions from, as you accurately point out, the evidence in front of him. sometimes all the evidence wasn't in. he didn't guess at it. it was based on observations. 
i'm not going back through the episodes to find examples but miller guesses quite often. if memory serves you can watch the 2nd or 3rd…

this is an entertaining show and i enjoy it. however, it is not a sherlock holmes show.
the first episode this holmes declared that he never guesses. and indeed, sherlock holmes never guesses.
turns out this one guesses all the time. episode after episode. this holmes has even accused someone of being the murderer when…

or… Tonto's smokin some righteous Indian stuff and the horse and man are, well, a horse and man.

or… Tonto's smokin some righteous Indian stuff and the horse and man are, well, a horse and man.

since this sherlock is presented as a bumbling fool who, as he declares in the first episode, "never guesses" then proceeds to guess away in every episode, i'm growing fond of the more level headed watson. there is at least one person who's not fumbling their way to a solution by false accusations and wrong deductions.

since this sherlock is presented as a bumbling fool who, as he declares in the first episode, "never guesses" then proceeds to guess away in every episode, i'm growing fond of the more level headed watson. there is at least one person who's not fumbling their way to a solution by false accusations and wrong deductions.