This piece is so bad I can’t tell whether it’s is supposed to be satire or not. All of your support for why Silver is wrong are examples of where he used his personal opinion to discount his actual model’s assessment of Trump’s chances. His model uses empirically based statistical methods that have a strong track…

If the game is tied, then home team loses. Statistics say that a team has around a 2 point advantage merely by being at home. Given that, failure to score more points than the away team should be interpreted as a loss.

I appreciate the analysis, but why were you on your phone in the theater? Hopefully you were sitting where the shining light from your phone wasn’t obnoxiously ruining the movie for somebody else?