This is a fine argument, but unfortunately there are a lot of people on here trying to make a different one, i.e. had the order been different but the outcome of his teammate’s kicks the same, somehow statistically they would have had a better chance to win (which is incorrect).

Once again, this is only correct if you believe that had Ronaldo gone early and scored, his teammates may have had a better chance of scoring.

I love all the people saying things like “It’s so simple” are the ones that fail to grasp this fundamentally basic concept.

It is only that short when you have 3 guys that miss and the other team has 3 guys that score. No matter what the order is of the first 5, if you miss three times and the other guys score three times, you lose..

No, the only reason it is over before it can balance out is because it is mathematically impossible to balance out before the end of 5 rounds..

Make it even more ludicrous: You have 2 guys that score 100% of the time and 3 guys that score 0% of the time. No matter what order you place these guys in, if the other team scores at least 3 of their first 5 shots, you lose.

Ok say Ronaldo went third and Nani went 4th. Yes, by Ronaldo making his shot, it would have extended it another round. But Nani gets up next and misses, you still lose.

no because then Nani goes next and misses and they still lose 3-1 after 4 attempts each. If you are saying Nani might have made it if Ronaldo made it before him, that is a different argument and not a math one.

From the author of your linked article:

He’s only negating himself if his team was going to lose anyways. Assuming no impact of momentum, it does not change your team’s odds if he goes first or last.

5th guy only doesn’t get a chance to kick because the team has been mathematically elimated, meaning even if he makes it and the other team misses their remaining shots, you lose.

Everyone here is so bad at math and probability it is making my head hurt. You are correct that assuming that each player’s odds of scoring is the same in any postion, the order of the first 5 does not change your team’s chances of winning.

Your argument makes sense if they put him outside of the first 5. The only reason he didn’t kick is because they were mathematically eliminated by then, which they would have been even if he went first and made it.

He only didn’t kick because the other guys missed. If he goes first and the other guys miss, they still lose. Therefore it doesn’t matter what the order of the first five is.

I umpired a lot of little league baseball in high school and over summers during college. In my experience, the abuse was generally dependent on the behavior of the coaches. Some teams had great coaches, and the rest of the parents followed their example. They were a pleasure to work with.

Subway used to have a deal that was 3 footlongs for $12. I would get an Italian BMT, Buffalo Chicken, and Tuna. Would eat the BMT and chicken immediately, put the tuna in the fridge which I would return to finish an hour later.

It’s not really a “sky man” religious thing, It’s about family history with stories from your parents and grandparents and ancestors further back who have consistently been turned on by the countries they’ve lived in and been loyal to.

The difference with hockey is that the US is not the overwhelming favorite going into the tournament. It’s competitive, and if the US wins it’s actually a really big deal. Casual fans can root for the US team and it not be boring. It’s a good way to grow the sport in America, this is a dumb move.

Not a stupid thing at all if the refs don’t completely fuck up the rule. I would think ‘High School Punter fumbles snap’ is usually a more likely scenario than ‘Refs don’t know rule’

As much as I despise Trump, this is not true. He had a clear protectionist, anti-globalization message that was aimed at the rust belt working class.