AS DID WHITE MEN.

Both sides got less votes than the last election, the difference was that Trump only lost ~500k while Hillary was down ~5m.

They’re not, but he’s an easy scapegoat to get clicks. Before election night, The Concourse had another article making fun of him for having the odds that low.

Kellyanne Conway is likely lying anyway. By most accounts the internal polling within the Trump campaign and the RNC predicted a Clinton victory too.

Yes. Thank you for this. Polling became pretty fucking unreliable since we’ve moved to cell phones and away from land lines. Online polls are tricky because there’s self-selection bias there.

Exactly. Silver has nothing to apologize for. He constantly pushed the theme that the election was close, that Trump continued to have a real chance. He pointed out that there had been polling errors in past elections that, if they occurred here, would make the race essentially a tie, and that Clinton’s firewall of…

That poll was off for a variety of reasons (including that they gave too much weight to an African American Trump supporter). The other national polls were more accurate given that Clinton won the popular vote (she’s currently up by about 1 million votes, and it’s expected to increase as states like NJ, CO, WA, OR,…

(Full disclosure: I didn’t watch the vid as it isn’t available to me).

IT IS NOT NATE SILVER’S FAULT THAT PEOPLE DON’T UNDERSTAND PROBABILITIES. He gave Trump a higher chance of winning the presidency than the Cubs had of coming back and winning the World Series after Game 4 and we literally all JUST saw that happen. He doesn’t conduct the polls, he aggregates them, and there was no way…

White women (excluding this one) have always been conservatives. Young people are a liberal base and failed to turn out. That’s like saying we should blame conservative white men for not voting for Clinton.

I cannot be the asshole who looks for places to blame. I liked Bernie Sanders but was convinced he couldn’t win. I then voted in the primaries for Hillary Clinton. I was well aware that she was a flawed candidate but tried to think critically. My thoughts were Bernie was too far left therefore someone who was more…

I keep reading about 538 (and others) being wrong, but as far as I know all they said was that Hillary had a 70% or so chance of winning. That’s not the same as saying she was going to win, so how exactly were they wrong?

If turnout is the reason Hillary lost, I don’t think complacency is the root of that.

I blame the polls more than Nate. 538.com is not a polling website. All they do is collect the polls and put them into a model. What is spewed out are the results of that data.

The LA Times poll was less accurate than most other polls, it just happened to be inaccurate in the direction of Trump.

The way some Clinton supporters treated Nate over last few months was vile. He was one of the only people who kept on saying that this is not a sure thing, go and have a look at his mentions and you will see people screaming at him because he did not have Hillary at 99% chance of winning.

Before the election, there were sites that had liberals berating Silver because he kept saying Trump had even a 1 in 3 chance. They wanted him to say Trump had zero chance. Silver got into a spat with some moron at Huff Post about it when he was claimed Silver was goosing his numbers for clicks.

And Nate Silver was lambasted for giving Trump a 33% chance of winning! Put on an oven mitt before handling this taek: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

Yeah, he’s a weird scapegoat in this saga. Flash back a week and a half ago and there were people all over the internet (including on this family of websites) writing pieces about how he was being way too bullish about Trump’s chances. Now, we’re blaming him for not being bullish enough...

Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if the polls were correct but they caused enough complacency that people just didn’t turn out. Both sides got less votes than the last election, the difference was that Trump only lost ~500k while Hillary was down ~5m.