I think it depends on the state - here in DC you can’t wear that stuff, but in either MD or VA it’s not prohibited (can’t remember which).

Good job finding the one time he actually tried to predict something! This is super problematic and pertinent to your article, since he never stated that he shouldn’t have made a prediction or made sure to clarify that the purpose of his website is not to try to predict things, but instead produce a reasonable and…

Prediction and forecast having different meanings in different fields. You need to look at these terms from a statistician’s POV.

The article you took that quote from has nothing to do with predicting anything. It’s entirely about the problems with polls and how Trump was running his campaign. That specific sentence is talking about how the media was jumping on the Trump bandwagon and that they weren’t buying it.

Somebody else said it-he’s deliberately trying to dumb down Silver’s work into a prediction-either barbecue he doesn’t understand it or doesn’t care. Kinda sad and quite ironic with how the election is going.

Have...have you read anything he’s written since?

Not sure you understand the difference between a forecast and a prediction.

In his own words, they don’t make predictions. They just analyze trendlines to tell you what the polls are saying. He has said repeatedly he’s not in the business of making predictions.

all your critiques on him are based on his not expecting Trump to win the nomination. No one thought he’d win the nomination. Betting markets had him at roughly a 15-1 longshot.

That’s what percentages are supposed to do.

What? He’s saying Clinton is a 2-1 favorite! It’s...right there on his website.

?????????

His site gives probabilities not predictions. Did he give actual predictions in 2012? I know he REALLY pissed off Karl Rove with something.

“[E]verything depends on one’s assumptions, but I think that our assumptions—a Clinton lead, sure, but high uncertainty—has repeatedly been validated by the evidence we’ve seen over the course of the past several months,” Silver told Politico in a story published today. “The idea that she’s a prohibitive, 95…

Sounds like someone applied for a job at 538 and didn’t get it.

People are SO passionate about the Oxford comma. Generally it’s the people who believe it should be included, but occasionally there are people who believe just as strongly that it shouldn’t. I swear I’ve seen people damned near come to blows on the subject.

it just makes it seem hopeless.

Seems like it did a pretty good job of educating you on the topic then.

Thanks to Director Comey inviting innuendo and speculation with zero actual facts. If Trump wins, I’m gathering together a gang, getting pitchforks and torches and descending on Comey. If she wins, then you better believe she will demand his resignation for violating both ethics, long standing practice and the law.

Whats up with lampshades?