Looks interesting, I might try it.

Are you trying to tell me that Wizard came from the moon?

It’s a tricky thing, but it’s important to realize that just because there are two doors before you, one with the prize and one without, that such a choice CAN be a 50/50 choice (you can ALWAYS flip a coin and choose a door based on that), but if you have more information about the likeliness of one door being a…

Prefixing my response to say again that this is a solved question, and has been solved for more than a decade. We’re just trying to illuminate why the odds are 2/3 in favor of switching and not 50/50, as it is extremely easy to make this mistake.

True...also not a bit of glue or scissors or tape in sight. Talk about false advertising.

Okay, on looking at your extended probability tree, I think I see the problem.

Because the tree already gives you everything you need to know.

Almost, but not quite. The odds of choosing right the first time, and Monty opening one of the doors with the goat, are 1/6 (1/3 you chose right * 1/2 for choosing one specific door). The odds of him choosing the OTHER door with the goat is 1/6 as well. The total odds of you picking the right door and Monty opening…

It’s certainly hard to get your head around this one. I wish I could say I saw how this worked when I was first introduced to this. Probability is something we’re just not wired to grasp intuitively, I think.

The first line item is not 2x more likely to happen. I think you’re viewing it as opening discrete doors, when really it’s about Monty opening “a” door and revealing a goat. He has an OR choice in this situation, and I think that changes probability calculations, if you’re trying to do some kind of probability fork…

I think it’s comforting to know that a great many who were tripped up by this were geeks and PhDs and professors. While there are some simple ways of looking at the problem to get the right answer, a great many of the more complex ways (ESPECIALLY those used by math geeks and professors) are susceptible to getting…

This might be a good alternative, at least for the manual choice part (the repeated simulation portion should yield similar results)

I think your logic is flawed here. Consider if this was 1000 marbles instead of 3.

It’s the same question, just at scale. Just change those 1000 doors to 3 and the logic remains:

It’s easier to consider the question as:

It isn’t the same scenario. The first choice matters significantly.

“Spared no expense.”

Can’t tell if I’m remembering with rose-colored glasses, but as a kid I thought they tasted better, without that burn and over-sweetness. I bought a 2-pack just for nostalgia’s sake and couldn’t get through it. Not sure if they’ve replaced an older, better quality recipe with sugar and profitable shortcuts to quality,…

Destro is effective, but I wouldn’t classify it as that exciting, and it’s definitely about soul shard management for those sweet tasty Chaos Bolts. Having Shadowburn on a mouseover macro helps (except for most bosses) to snipe those near death for more shards.

Ah, but that’s why there’s tea; earl grey; hot. Makes all the bad memories go away.