Income and stability.

A major factor—and not one I know how to counter—is whether people see a possible future laid out if they stay on the straight and narrow. For kids in very poor areas who can't see any other path than what the adults around them do, they are the ones getting pregnant young and poor. Those who see a series of steps…

There is actual science on this: Provide birth control to young and/or poor women for free, and the number of unplanned pregnancies goes down sharply. So does the number of abortions. In very poor countries (Bangladesh, specifically) the number of children had by married women dropped by half, from 8 to 4, if birth…

I think a practical problem comes up in terms of how long people are in someone's life. Relatives do tend to stick around decades later. Friends and non-married romantic partners tend to be more fleeting. Not universally, but on average.

I agree with your statistical background, but not that it is never spoken of. And will add the important clarifier that for children of emotionally and fiscally stable parents—the sort of people who reach 35, think 'well apparently meeting the life partner isn't working out, what is plan B' and decide to have a child…

He's on the ballot—deadline for filing is tomorrow—but in the incredibly unlikely event that he wins Minnesota it would be easy to challenge in court because the state Republican party didn't follow its own rules for alternate electors. The rule is that they are selected at the state convention, which they didn't do,…

I'm getting really frustrated that "Clinton factually points out Trump's history of racist actions and that his campaign manager styles himself a leading voice of the alt right; Trump calls her a bigot" is being reported as "candidates exchange charges of bigotry."

I've got a soft spot for McCain, but—much as he came to regret endorsing torture because they told him that was what he needed to win in 2008—it would be fitting if he goes down because he tied Trump around his neck.

But Vladimir told Julian that he totally had a very secret fat lady warming up in a secret bunker, and he would let Julian see the fat lady in late October, and it would be devastating to the Clinton campaign. Are you suggesting that Vladimir Putin would lie?

I'm still going with "doctor is covering for Trump writing the letter himself."

Of note: per July spending reports, Manafort was working for free. In fact, he had donated to the campaign, an amount they refunded to him, I suspect on the grounds "oh shit we don't want any of his money touching us when this finishes breaking."

I want to know what spokeswoman Katrina Pierson has, and on whom does she have it.

Interesting theory on that: his swing state rallies aren't drawing the crowds any more. Florida was half full. And people who spent hours waiting to get in, then another couple of hours sitting and waiting inside, then he comes out and reads his teleprompter speech and it's clear no cathartic crazy blitz will…

He should go after Hawaii. Tulsi Gabbard's opponent is a HUGE Trump fan, and I think that his presence by her side could really bring the state on board. Plus she would provide the headline-generating excitement his campaign will need as Bannon starts to fade.

I'm honestly surprised they let him have a phone that does outgoing tweets, and it says all anyone needs to know about how the people around him will keep him from doing anything unfortunate when he's president and his power isn't limited to just saying stuff.

I would think the potential profit margins on his future Trump-alt-right network would make it worth admitting he lives in NY and paying state income tax. This is a really weird thing to try and swap fake residences and hope Trump draws attention off it.

Canada just got rid of their far right prime minister, though, and they haven't yet made Trudeau premier for life.

Re 3, a theory is that he is avoiding state income tax. (Which Florida doesn't have, and NY and CA where he actually lives do.) Voter fraud in a swing state is a bonus.

Alarmingly, GOP discipline has kicked in and no one is commenting on the speech. 'Journalists' are ready to pounce and report what he said she said as soon as Ryan et al weigh in to defend the nominee, but apparently if they won't there's nothing to say.