What's also bizarre—and as an American I'm embarrassed that he is doing so well despite this—is his complete lack of details beyond adjectives. Like "tough, fair, very, best people, tough, high energy" is as much thought as he's put into it after running for a year.

Or as one headline sums up: Calling someone racist is the hallmark of utter flailing desperation! Also, Clinton is a racist.

I think 45 is a starting point, but a soft floor. And Trump is going to experiment with how low the hard floor is. (I would guess he stays above 30.)

Do you want good high-stakes spy stories with a clearly definable enemy, like we had during the cold war? Then we need to let Putin have eastern Europe.

That's a good point about charisma—Pence is very far from Trump in terms of revving up the base by being dedicated to the crazy. That lack of distraction from his positions on stuff won't help. Whereas Kaine is Perfectly Competent.

It's a glorious distillation of the MRA side of the alt right.

I'm sticking with either quality of polling (with in-person calls the gold standard for reliable results) or Clinton doing well in the swing states (where she's been advertising, and which get the in-person calls). There was no shy Trump vote in the primaries, and I find it hard to conceive of someone staying on the…

Pence's visibility has been largely explaining what it is Trump secretly meant to say. I don't think he's covering himself in glory.

That is…

I sincerely hope he tries to get people to run down ballot. If you want a revolution, you need a lot of people in it. Not just rallying, but getting their hands dirty passing legislation, and realizing that 51% of the voting public is not a coalition that looks like only you and your friends.

The alt right is white supremacy with cat memes.

One of the Breitbart stories Clinton hit in her speech—birth control makes women ugly, thereby denying them the opportunity for an injection of man meat—concludes that women should not use birth control because they need to breed more white people to offset all the brown people coming in.

Apparently the Clinton campaign is deliberately not calling attention to his flip flops, as by the time a given ad is cut he will have flipped again. They just choose the most damaging crazy thing and run with that, pounding 'temperamentally unsuited.' That part applies everywhere.

She keeps invoking her small children as examples of how she jollies Trump into doing things. This is not normally said about presidential candidates by their surrogates.

A physician who claims that his client has the most astonishing test results, uniformly positive, and would be the healthiest person to hold this post in 200 years?

I remember the Republicans Hiding In The Shrubbery from the great poll unskewing of '12.

Trump was the first person ever to say that the system was rigged.

What gave it away was that it had some specifics.

Wait, really? Is it on PBS over here?

They're going to simultaneously have far tougher cops, allowed to take the fight straight to the enemy and go Dirty Harry on anyone they suspect, AND lower incarceration rates.