Nate is fighting for his reputation’s life right now. After 2010-2014 he was widely seen as some sort of supergenius. Then he launched 538 which is, to be charitable, uninspiring. And then he completely blew the GOP primaries.

The thing is, all of this “it’s a forecast, not a prediction” only has value  if you say it before your forecasts fail. Like, when he was getting a full-on tongue bath from the media in 2012, he wasn’t making all of these caveats and provisos. And that’s when they really matter. It’s only after his incredibly…

This is the problem. All of these sites publish their data methods. He should be poking holes in their assumptions or algorithms, not bringing in unfalsifiable just-so stories. It’s his web site’s job to replace those modes of explanation.

It’s insane, and it makes me want to go on a murderous rampage.

Famous last words from Pauline Kael:

the reason Silver is getting increasingly pissy about this has a lot to do with his chief rival, Sam Wang, who has pointed out that, statistically, this race is the single most stable race in recorded history, hovering nationally around Hillary +4% outside of the two-week period after both conventions.

I think Nate’s raging against other stats-based pundits who keep twisting themselves (and the data) in knots to say Hillary is far ahead. For example, the Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton’s win probability between 79%-87% (http://election.princeton.edu/), while 270towin has Clinton’s win probability as high…

So what you’re saying is that you’re in the third stage.

1. Silver totally fucking blew it in the GOP primary by insisting Trump couldn’t win, so he naturally felt burned and decided to retreat to Pure Data.

The irony is that Silver’s original purpose with 538, back when it was just a Blogger site, was to provide a data-driven alternative to horse-race coverage. The problem is that, because 2008, 2012, and most of 2016 have shown a Democrat likely to win, his model was embraced by liberals as this mystic talisman against…

I think Nate Silver took more than deserve praise the last two cycles for basically saying, “No, really, the aggregate polls say Obama is going to win.” Liberals, unsurprisingly, took a lot of comfort in this information when cable news was (and is) willing to put on any idiot willing to say whatever they want and the…

I think Nate Silver is slowly coming to grips with the reality that all he ever did was apply an algorithm to lots of polls, got lucky, was over-celebrated, and has been proven to be the same goddamn huckster that everyone else in the industry is. Smugly tweeting 5 stages of “acceptance” is proof of that.

Nate has clearly gotten sensitive about his model. I think the questions are fair, when you consider how Silver did in the primaries (including the fact that he whiffed on a couple of Democratic primaries in addition to the Trump thing), and the fact that he moved his operations to ESPN, which would cause a cynic to…

With Bayless gone, it’s only a matter of time before Nate realizes that he can make a better living at ESPN spouting hot takes and bearing no responsibility when everything he says is proven incorrect.

It’s amazing how the media has whipped up a horse race JUST IN TIME for the debates, this has to be perhaps the most coincidental set of circumstances of all time! 

Any kid who’s parents can afford those seats for them I do not feel sorry for in any way, shape, or form.

Water falls on your legs while you shower so why bother getting down there with soap?

There’s a huge difference between this video and a Pulitzer prize winning photo.

I’d guess nudity. They seem really strict on that. There was the Napalm girl thing the other week after all.

Nudity, maybe? It doesn’t look like she’s wearing a body suit or anything (admittedly haven’t watched the video).