I'm not sure you're understanding my point. The Chinese economy is the second largest in the world due to its cheaper labor costs. As China modernizes, the price of Chinese labor rises. The Chinese economy is almost solely based on its cheap exported goods. When those rising labor prices reach a certain point, those…

The ruling elite have always been afraid of the people. The two main purposes of the PLA is as an internal security force and as a major source of jobs for the children of (incredibly poor) subsistence farmers from the interior of the country. Technically the PLA is a conscript army, but there are so many poor men…

The PLAN can't ensure they receive oil shipments. That's my point. They don't have enough blue water expertise or enough deployment capability to effectively patrol the Northern Indian Ocean. The only true strong capability of the PLAN is its defensive capability, which is largely dependent on land based anti-ship…

It has strayed a little from Chinese Coast Guard "Super-cutters". But an interesting conversation indeed.

Per the oil argument, the only navy capable of ensuring freedom of the seas is the US Navy. No one else has a blue water navy capable of so many global deployments. And the Chinese Navy can't patrol those commercial lanes and dominate the South China Sea. Their navy (including forward bases) is just far too small and…

Sanctions against China wouldn't be that damaging at all to the US economy. Trying to use the US debt they own as leverage would end up doing them more harm than good. As Squirrel said the Chinese can't weather a major economic crisis. The ensuing internal unrest would be enough to destabilize the entire system.…

Yep. I was just about to say that this is basically a skid steer (not a bobcat) with some bolt on armor and a paint job.

As I understand it the ABM system in Poland would have only been capable of defending against missiles launched from the Middle East. The Russians would send their missiles directly over the Arctic.

I saw about 10 B-52s leave Barksdale a few days before Thanksgiving. They were headed SE in your direction, flying in pairs. They might be the same ones you've been seeing. No idea why they are there though.

And laser weapons/railguns may end up functioning as the aircraft carrier of the 21st century, rendering the "battleship" missiles obsolete.

The US has several nuclear storage sites that have shoot on sight orders, but luckily we still rely on humans to make the call. If you cross the very well marked fences the guards are supposed to use lethal force, period. One such location is only a few miles from where I sit now.

Unless desalinization gets much cheaper very soon, war will make more economic sense than desalination plants. And what about landlocked countries? Do you think coastal countries will just give away an expensive to produce resource?

The global population will continue to rise well into this century. All the while more countries are becoming "developed" and require the resources of developed countries. Many of these resources, including land, are finite. Increased productivity can't make more water or rare earth metals, on the contrary it…

He isn't assuming it's a contest in a "vision". All you have to do is observe the world through the lens of geopolitical history to know that there are always players vying for more control. There isn't enough of everything for everyone and there probably hasn't been since the 19th century. The last time the major…

Correct, I was referring to the Dragon family of capsules. As of now SpaceX is focusing it's energy on delivering crews and cargo to LEO destinations. And while I have faith in Elon Musk's determination, his Mars plan hinges on learning a lot of lessons from the work Orion will be doing outside of LEO. The Mars…

In terms of religion, yes. Syria's leadership is Alawi, a sect of Shia. But in terms of geopolitics it still makes sense for a weak Iran to benefit Syria. That was my point.

Just recently I was driving down a four lane street in a busy commercial area. There was no turn lane, and an elderly woman and her elderly passenger had mistaken the inside lane of oncoming traffic as the nonexistent turn lane. I slowed down and made sure she could go ahead and safely turn. She could have caused a…

If I were Iran I would hesitate to buy anything from the Chinese that wasn't a licensed copy of Soviet aircraft. Their indigenous designs are improving but still leave much to be desired, especially their engines.

Russia's closest partner in the ME has been Syria since the 1960's or before. Selling loads of weapons to Iran (Shia) would erode the regional influence of Syria (Sunni). I think at some point the Soviets also had aspirations to push through Afghanistan and establish a corridor to the Indian Ocean, either through…

C-4 is pretty darn cheap.