We hit that demand level once the exports increased significantly. The prediction didn’t include the unforeseeable record breaking exports and drop imports. The prediction is still likely correct that as you quoted, it’s enough to get us to 2023. 

Their predictions didn’t include global demand for U.S. oil hitting record highs. Again, a record of nearly 7 million barrels of refined fuel per day were exported and around 9.6 Mbpd total exports. Demand is on fire. And natural gas will be even more concerning in the coming months if circumstances don’t change soon.

You’re relying on expert predictions based on a different conditions, something that was based on the lower demand. Now demand is so hot that we set an export record of nearly 7 million barrels of refined fuel per day.

How do you figure? I also wish fuel was 2 dollars cheaper, but global demand is outpacing production. 

Eh, the engine isn’t too bad, it’s just as reliable as the 1.9 TDI. My parents had an ‘05 and I had an ‘06, they got 120k trouble free before selling. Mine went to 230k before selling, the only issue it had was a bad control arm.

An SUV version of the Ram 1500 playing dress up as a Jeep.

I agree. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened yet(surprisingly). There’s still time for improvements to happen, gas has more time than diesel. But it does make me wonder if the adults in the room have the plan b ready if it gets tighter. 

That’s part of it, but it’d be significantly worst without the releases. Distillates got really really low in PADD 1(East Coast) and is why Jet A is 9 to 11(more on the 11 side at major airports like Boston and JFK) a gallon. Despite the high price, the airlines are still seeing incredible demand.

What solution do you propose? RBOB is trading on the market for 3.88 a gallon at this moment. And how do we deal with some of the unintended consequences?

Correct, but it’s a global market. We produced 12 million barrels last week, exported nearly 10 million barrels, and used nearly 8 million from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help have one of the few weeks where our inventories didn’t drop. This is a large reason for why we aren’t seeing the insane prices seen in…

Funny how when you have something in short supply, the market pays more for it. I get the frustration, but the market is what’s pushing this up, and the greedy oil companies are happy to take it. Same for the person who bought a home 5 years ago, they’re happy to take the fair market price that’s a 100k or more than…

Correct, but add a graph for fuel inventory. Back when we previously saw 120 a barrel, our inventory wasn’t at an all time low like it is now.

Interesting. Inserting a few pieces of context.

I think it’s because they’re both similar in size(both interior volume and exterior cargo volume), have similar price points, and are both based on rival SUVs from Ford and Hyundai(Escape and Tucson). 

Out of curiosity, what indicators are giving you that impression? Gas demand dropped due to COVID, but was trending upward leading to the pandemic. Demand has recovered and we’re struggling to maintain gas inventories.

Yep, that’s been the case. But energy producers are also reluctant to invest in their oil and gas production while we make plans to transition away from oil and gas. 

This. I buy well beyond the tow rating that I need because I’ve sat on the side of the road with with a transmission that couldn’t handle the disagreement between the engine and the wheels. That’s not the end of the world if you’re a hundred miles from home, but when you’re 500 miles away, it gets complicated and…

I feel that. 83-85 is what I can fit in. Usually the credit car is blocked from that station for a day after the third swipe. Going to a truck stop is a way around the limit, but it’s an extra 15-40 cents a gallon.

That may be the case, but the threshold for demand destruction is far higher than it used to be in ‘08. Vehicles are more efficient, the job market is still strong, and people are wanting to travel.

Good points. I’ve used this before when an officer asked to search my vehicle. The officer then said I’d need to wait for the K9 unit which could be hours. After waiting around for 20 minutes, I consented to the search. At that time, I didn’t realize there was a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that roughly said…