When Silver gives Clinton a 71% chance of winning, what he means is that he ran 1000 simulations through his model and about 710 of those simulations resulted in a Clinton victory. But that also means 290 simulations resulted in a Clinton loss, which isn’t trivial. For reference, the probability of flipping a coin…

I was coming down here to write this myself. To blame Nate Silver for calling the election wrong lacks so much nuance. First, because he was more accurate than most or all of the other analytics folks, both in level of certainty, but also in laying out the possibilities that would lead to a Trump election. Want to…

Silver’s numbers in the primaries were actually correct. He was wrong because he couldn’t believe what his numbers were telling him and decided that his numbers must’ve been wrong somehow.

Yeah. Silver was one of the only non-Right Wing voices saying that Trump had a chance in the final months of the election and these assholes still shit on him.

A ton! If the write up had focused on the Republican primary, it would have been close to accurate. Nate Silver was way off about Trump’s chances in the Republican primary. His problem there was he ignored the numbers and tried to play pundit. But in the general election, he did fine.

Silver takes the blame because he’s the mascot of the super-scientific secret-sauce predictions crowd, but him and the Upshot guys and the Princeton Election Consortium nerds and everyone else who convinced us the Democrats had this one in the bag all have to look in their mirrors every night for the rest of their…

“Gerrymandered to shit” over here in deep blue Orange County. ☹️ NC is full of good, progressive people—a majority—and we don’t have proportional representation in Raleigh. NC should serve as a cautionary tale for what the good ol’ USA has to look forward too now.

This is a leftover from the days of Livejournal. A gentle ribbing, yes, but true in that some of the best artists just don’t think like most of us shlubs.

It’s my state too. I’m not leaving, but you can bet I’ll do everything I can to get the numerous non-voting liberal folks I know here in WNC to finally step the hell up.

Yes we are, and a VERY divided state.

I think the drug police is just, like, you know, the police.

Yeah, that’s one of the problems with whiteness, it’s not equal to blackness, jewishness or being hispanic and white, black, hispanic and jewish people aren’t treated the same

Well, maybe white people should learn to think of and understand ourselves as white, because instead we think of ourselves as “just people”- as if whiteness were “neutral” and non-white was “Other.” White people tend to think of ourselves as not having a race. That has some pretty big implications. Everyone…

The course title is clearly referencing WEB Du Bois’s The Souls of Black Folk (1903), wherein DuBois uses the refrain “how does it feel to be a problem?” to refer to the condition of being black in the US. Flipping the script makes people pay attention when they ordinarily wouldn’t think about an issue at all. Which…

“I wonder if his course covers how a white guy becomes a professor of African Cultural Studies?

Yeah, it’s almost as if you have to think more deeply about what the phrase means instead of taking it at its most literal interpretation. Like a university student.

Funny, though, how Emma’s experience is shared by so many women in nearly all industries.

Hollywood is especially tough on our Asian American actors and actresses. It’s really unfair.

If we wanted to know the true health status of candidates, they would be subject to a medical exam from someone who is not their personal doctor. In other words, we would treat them the same way we treat soldiers when it comes to their fitness.

Second world mean communist.