It's not foolproof obviously*. But I will say that A. I don't think he would have been nominated as often if hadn't been known for his work in film (seems like the academy wants to reward film actors for making the transition) and B. Spacey never won. He lost to Jeff Daniels in The Newsroom, Brian Cranston in BB,…
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I think people vote for the character they like instead of for the better performance (Which is why Martin Sheen's president beat James Gandolfini's mobster)
I watched this episode a couple of days after Prince had died. Loved that they happened to reference two of his songs in it: Sugar Walls (for Sheena Easton) and 1999.