I hate to say it, but even fucking Bush ducked flying shoes like a man.

Nah, Trump sensed a draft come into the room, so he was dodging it.

That baby might have been a member of ISIS.

That baby would never have been strangled if it was here legally.

As if his hands could wrap all the way around a baby’s neck.

Here’s the problem with this line of thinking: Nate Silver is not predicting anything.

Your article: “If the model isn’t certain, then what is it good for?”

What? He’s saying Clinton is a 2-1 favorite! It’s...right there on his website.

That’s a silly criticism. If you look at the 538 model (which I suspect you’re referring to), it’s predicting a Clinton victory, but it’s not sure about it. That’s just the nature of mathematical forecasting: it doesn’t give you a definite answer, it tells you how likely each outcome is. The inputs and assumptions are…

Matt do you really not understand how probability works at all?

His model says that there’s roughly a 66% chance that Hillary wins. It’s right there on his website, and it’s updated many times every day as new data comes in.

?????????

His site gives probabilities not predictions. Did he give actual predictions in 2012? I know he REALLY pissed off Karl Rove with something.

You’re clearly not a poker player, or someone who deals with probabilistic calculations.

Sounds like someone applied for a job at 538 and didn’t get it.

I’d be fine if they just had a dedicated crew in the booth that would look at replays instead of having all the refs talk it over, then jog over to “go under the hood.” Someone upstairs just comes over the earpiece, “yep, he got both feet in.” Resume play.

Some perspective on how historic this is:

Stick to soccer, Haisley.

How can you be undecided with only six days to go....

Oh, sorry, wrong context.

Nah.