The problem is:

I don’t think it was so much that Trump did not have a political history. I think that it was that he had such a strong appeal to a certain population that was large in Midwestern States and either tended to vote Democratic or stayed home. That is a systematic error in the polls.

1. Clinton’s approval rating rose nearly 10% due to his impeachment.

Yes, you are right that it is unlikely that Biden could win the popular vote by 10% and lose the electoral vote. But as I pointed out, having a 10% lead at this point does not mean much given how far away the election is and the fact that the primary elections are still the better part of a a year away. Clinton had a…

The problem was, the polling was wrong in the states that ended up deciding the election. Right before the election, Trump was behind Clinton by 6 points in Pennsylvania with a <3 point margin of error. Clinton was ahead by 8 points in Wisconsin. She lost both of those States. She was also ahead by 11 points in New…

Trump was behind about 10% to Clinton at several points during the general election race and we don’t even know for certain yet that Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee.

Impeachment is primarily a political act, the House Democrats are politicians, and impeaching the President has a lot of potential negative political consequences for the Democrats and very few potential upsides.

“Gerrymandering has crippled the DNC ability to take Senate seats.”

How would him being found not guilty during an impeachment trial not also send the message that he could, “do whatever the fuck [he] want[s]”? The Democrats have better things to do than to order Sancho to attack some windmills. 

Nancy Pelosi won her last primary with 80% of the vote. Good luck with challenging her in the primary.

I’m not sure how impeaching Trump and him being cleared of the charges with a not guilty verdict would set a different precedent. Either way, there are no real repercussions for him or checks on his power. But if he is impeached, he will get to use the talking point that he was exonerated of the charge of obstruction…

The problem with bringing financial crimes against Trump is that they are really hard to prove on a criminal level. A lot of them require proving not only that he intentionally broke the law, but that he actually knew that what he was doing was illegal. He will invariably argue that he had no criminal intent and was…

The whole idea that we need an “impeachment inquiry” is a fallacy. The Democrats would have the same exact power to “inquire” under the auspices of an “impeachment inquiry” as they have today.

Impeachment is equivalent to an indictment. The House votes to bring formal charges against a federal official. The Senate then holds a trial, similar to a criminal trial, and decides whether he is guilty or not guilty. 

The impeachment of federal officials works very similar to a court of criminal law. 

True, but if he were charged with obstruction in federal court, wouldn’t the fact that he was charged with the same crime and found not guilty during his impeachment trial be admissible evidence? And even if it were not, how would you find a jury that would not be influenced by the congressional verdict?

I don’t know if it would protect him from prosecution or exonerate him, but it would serve as the equivalent of a “not guilty” criminal court verdict and would probably be used by the defense if Trump were ever charged with obstruction. But even worse, Trump would constantly talk about how he was totally and…

You are confusing “facts” with premises. A false premise is not necessarily a wrong fact. It is a faulty statement upon which a conclusion is predicated. A statement can be 100% factually correct and still be a false premise. Nobody is arguing that we did not spend the money. The false premise is that it was…

What you wrote earlier seems to be based on a few different false premises.

This is the future of politics. We already saw a ton of it in 2016 when actual fake news targeting both liberals and conservatives spread like wildfire on social media. The next logical step is to go from fake stories and memes that use doctored photos to fake videos to eventually perfectly-produced “deep fakes”.