I think that's correct, though I fail to see much of A Serious Man in S1. This ep (and the gang warfare in general) = Miller's Crossing. Corporatism + unstoppable violence + "the stories used to be simpler" = No Country. UFOs = The Man Who Wasn't There.

My money's on Simone's being alive. Her "death scene" heavily quotes Miller's Crossing, in particular the scene in which (SPOILER ALERT) Tom Reagan takes Bernie out to, well, Miller's Crossing to kill him on account of his many betrayals. Of course, once Bernie starts balling and begging for his life, Tom begrudgingly…