Keith does not have an idol.

I actually do put Natalie as having the highest odds, because I like her chances at winning the final challenge or being chosen by Baylor or Missy should they win the final challenge. Also, if something else happens that keeps Baylor or Missy out of the FTC, Natalie beats the other two.

The first season is pretty amazing (no pun intended), but a very different show than what it's become, as it was pre-9/11 and thus could play a lot faster and looser with travel (far more restrictions now). They've also found some things to be more convenient to them now from a TV production that they didn't back…

Can you really argue that I don't?

I'll reiterate because I buried it in a wall of text above: none of this is to say that Natalie's made any mistakes in getting here. Removing Jon was a big step toward having a chance to win. I'm just saying that it's not a done deal yet. Especially since Baylor and Missy aren't voting each other out.

I'll say this with near certainty: Jon left his idol for Jaclyn. Whether or not she can actually use it we will have to find out.

That Natalie would win against anyone in the FTC is something we have no disagreement with. My point is that she still has a major obstacle in getting there. Now, this is generally true of most seasons, but the difference here is that both Missy and Baylor's first priority is each other, not Natalie. Whereas Tony…

Also, in his day after video, he says he's in a way glad that he didn't play his idol, because now Jaclyn has a way of getting herself into the F3.

The problem is, if you're a dominant winner, you end up making your competition look worse (especially since this is an edited competition). So Tony's probably the best answer.

My post was probably too long for you to read (although, that'd be ironic given how much you write to me all the time), but I'm working on the assumption that Jaclyn already has a ticket to F4.

It might look like Natalie's in a great spot here, because she's awesome and has looked the best out of these five, but really, her chances at winning are about even with Keith and just ahead of Jaclyn. As long as you don't consider the edit, which isn't a bad idea, since it's been fucking with us all season.

I'm pretty sure she does. He very clearly just took his canteen with him, deliberately taking some time to sort through his stuff.

Pretty crazy that I have someone going into the final episode, and am only ahead of someone who had the first two boots.

I haven't been this happy about being wrong since I said Tony Vlachos had zero percent chance at winning Survivor.

Last season, one of the greatest ever, was on a Wednesday.

Not sure if this is real or just something I imagined, but I may have heard that Woo was originally in the beauty tribe, but they switched him out to balance other dynamics (most likely, that the entire beauty tribe would have been in their early twenties).

It's still next week at final four, so you're not exactly wrong.

Yeah, they figured out as soon as Wes got voted out and pieced it all together for them.

"I have one of those feelings that Jon/Jaclyn are one of those couples that never have too much trouble getting what they want out of life"

Savage made the merge. Just not the jury.