1. Tyson - the odds-on favourite. Hard to imagine it not being him at this point.
2. Ciera - Could beat anyone in the F3 at this point (since I think this jury is on her side), but I don't think she can get there.

The trick is to not give juries an out. Right now, it looks like the juries are routing for Hayden and Ciera, and they probably are to a degree (underdogs are more entertaining than the obvious winners carving their way to the end). Which is why its incumbent on smart players to eliminate those options prior to the…

Basically, there are ways to eliminate people from this game without making them hate you for it. Many people have done it. If you're unable to do so, then the fault is yours.

He's already had some former Survivors that actually sat on a jury (unlike him) tell him that their minds were changed at the final TC. Skupin was also convinced that Denise was an inferior player to him and would be easy to beat in the finals. I'm not sure Skupin is all that astute.

You can be my assistant captain.

So, I figured out how Ciera goes this week: she starts stirring things up with Monica (as shown in the previews), Monica tells Tyson, Ciera has to go.

While you're at it, you should look at the standings. You'll have to look up to see me.

I agree it was Russell who hurt her more. But had the jury not had the option of Sandra to vote for instead, I think Parvati could've won. Had it been Jerri instead, who had the same blood on her hands, the jury wouldn't have had the same out (although Jerri could've won).

Russell voted out Coach. Sandra tricked Russell into thinking it was his idea.

Which was the point I was trying to make and Judge was refusing to accept. Juries will often vote for the players who tried to help them (former allies, people who tried to be allies). But the past 5 juries haven't had that option.

One follow-up to our discussion that I thought about after we recorded: I think one of the reason why people (like @JudgeReinhold:disqus) think that juries are less likely to vote against the person who eliminated them of late is simply because most of the recent juries were made up of three person alliances who all…

Yep. One after Wednesday, another following the finale/reunion. And then maybe a wrap-up show over the holidays.

For Katie, it's definitely worth the shot. Anyone arguing otherwise is just being obtuse. I'd argue that it was also worth the shot for Ciera. It was Tyson that probably shouldn't have risked it.

The latest episode of our now poorly name podcast is live!

Note: it is now disgraced, former Olympic gold medalist Crystal. Her medal has been stripped due to doping.

Basically, fire making is only the tiebreaker in situations where they can't go to rocks because the number of people isn't high enough. They don't actually want the elimination to go down to random chance or winning or losing a competition. They want people to vote each other out. Since most people will change their…

I'd have thought it funny if he said it in a confessional.

Our joke is that if we did that, people would tune in to listen to Coldplay and Mumford and Sons.

The show does not fall under game show fixing laws. It fought long and hard to not be considered a game show to avoid those laws. Their main concern is to avoid litigation, not legal penalty.

The producers have changed along with the show. But also, there are differences. Rob's vote probably does give it away, while Gervase's doesn't.