Fair enough. We're are allowed to calculate hypothetical odds in different ways.

Hayden's odds on going on an immunity run aren't high, but if the plan is to vote Ciera out ahead of him, that's one more immunity he doesn't need to win. Then it's Laura M or Hayden, and she IS a big threat to win two. So now he only needs to win one. He could win one. He's finished second twice in challenges and…

Oh, and agreed that Hayden's smile was a bit of self-satisfaction. So was parts of Ciera and Tyson's about escaping the rocks. But even earlier with Hayden, he framed his frustration around hating to lose, not some battle of good and evil.

I'm also not anticipating a bitter jury. But there's still the element of "I like this player better than this one" that can come into play, that isn't the same as being bitter. People want to feel good about their vote. If you're a dick to them and are up against someone who was good to them, it can cost you.
Which is…

I play to win the game. Not to finish fourth. I'm like Ciera in that respect.

I do like that Caleb is not interested in defending his relationship to Jeff or any of us. Good for him.

I agree there's a non-zero chance that someone changes their mind and swaps Ciera in at F4. But I'd argue it's a lower chance that her odds were tonight. Either way, she was leaving her fate up to chance.
And, yes, hindsight being what it now, she should've just gone with the loved ones last week. But at the time, she…

There you go. That's a legit reason that I can get behind. I still think Hayden is the biggest threat (I mean seriously, look what he just pulled out of his ass last night), but I can see that.

One thing I really loved that is easy to overlook in all the excitement. Once Tribal was over and things worked out for the dominant alliance, Hayden, Tyson, and Ciera all had smiles on their faces, as if to say "well, that was kinda fun". I like that. There seems to be a really good group of people playing this game…

The other thing to consider is that Tyson has an idol in his pocket, so if he could guarantee his survival this tribal, he's guaranteed the next one too. That puts his two challenges away from victory no matter which way Ciera breaks after this.

We actually talked about Gabon (and Randy, not Rudy) in the historical discussion, but in a different context.

Not if he frames it for Ciera that he chose Ciera over Monica. Then it's Tyson, Ciera, Gervase vs Hayden and Katie.

I disagree. Ciera even justified her first vote as "I'm number four guys, what do you want me to do". That's the point where Tyson says to her, "no you're not. And I'll prove it with this vote". All Ciera wanted was to be ahead of Monica there. Prove to her that she is, and she's yours again.

Agreed.

I think Tyson let the emotion of the situation get the better of him there. Which is something he's otherwise been so good at not doing this season.
If all goes as planned and he faces Monica and Gervase in the final, it probably won't matter. But if someone like Ciera or Hayden sneak their way through, it could be the…

Think about what next week will be like, when Tina is confronted with the possibility of taking one of her children out of the game.

You can find us on iTunes by looking for Purple Rock Podcast. The episode we recorded last night is being edited, so it won't be available until tomorrow, most likely.

My math says that 25% is worse than 33%. That's what you're getting at, right?

I'd agree with this. It would've been hard to sit there, see how the jury was reacting to Hayden vs Gervase, and not be compelled to move.

If they were ever going to give them one immunity upon their return, they'd have to return a lot earlier than they do.