It could have been a spur-of-the-moment plan on Saul's part when he saw the doob, but even then it's pretty dicey. It seems more in-character for Saul to see an immediate problem and solve it.

I was gonna (very gently) criticize your spelling of "dike," but it looks like "dyke" is preferred outside the US and Canada: http://grammarist.com/spell…

(If you read the article and the rest of the comments, a trigger warning is superfluous, I guess - but this comment discusses Melfi's rape. Moreover, I try to suggest ways it might be improved as a dramatic scenario, which might be extra-disturbing.)

You are on to something with your skepticism of Livia's diagnosis. To SPOIL as vaguely as I can: Melfi's opinions about Tony, Livia, and Carmella should not be taken as gospel; same goes for much (though not all) of psychiatry as a whole (as the show presents it).