I may be wrong here, but I believe the score/win% tables that are usually used depend on historical data. Meaning they actually take into account the effect of the other team running clock when up by nine. Not totally sure though.

Thank you. This is most of the benefit of going for two now rather than later. If you wait, take your time to get score 2, and miss, you're screwed. If you miss now, you have time to get frantic and possibly recover.

3. None of these models, in my opinion, seem to account for the single biggest point/score mover: teams undergoing a QB change. I have watched FO's picks for 3 years and they routinely pick teams that are making a QB change to upset a favorite. With all the QB injuries this flaw in the system has been especially…

The "last place schedule" just means that they play the Browns and Bills instead of the Ravens and Patriots. So, say they lost to the Ravens instead of beating the Browns last week. They'd still be 7-1 against a "first place schedule".

So, pretty similar to Duke Snider, who is in the chart above.

You may want to stop reading Regressing.

Here's the TR game winner prediction accuracy: http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/betting-mo…

I know at TR, the entire cockup is basically due to weeks 3 and 4. Check out the "playable" ATS record by week so far:

http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/nfl/a-res…

You are incorrect, or using a terribly unfair bookie. When a spread bet pushes, you get your money back (at any reputable sportsbook).

Oh, just saw this comment after I wrote my reply to your list of places.

Oh, just saw this comment after I wrote my reply to your list of places.

You think billionaires go to the same night clubs as your local garbage collector? And office buildings don't have a selection bias based on what companies have offices there? And hospitals in rich neighborhoods don't have a different set of patients than hospitals in poor neighborhoods? And high ticket prices don't…

"If it were indeed 1% that was that rich, then chances are any time you walked into a room with 100 people in it, statistically there'd be one of these guys in there with you."

I use 5 Dimes. As GhostOfAndreRison said about Sportsbook or Bovada, it's a bit annoying to wait for them to mail you a check when cashing out, and I was only able to deposit a few hundred bucks at a time when I initially loaded my account. But hey, I'm in the US, and I'm receiving money.

Congrats on one of the highest effort:usefulness ratios I've seen in a while.

The wrestling team might receive more instruction on proper wrestling technique and safety than the football team, which could in theory mitigate the outrage/danger.

So, I did my little experiment. For all games since 2003 (because that's how far back my data goes), I found all games that were tied after 3 quarters, and compiled the record of the team that led in time of possession after three quarters.

I still think there's a causation issue. And that is: converting first downs leads to higher time of possession. So a team that puts together a long drive and scores, while their opponent goes 3 & out, leads in BOTH the score AND time of possession. And I would guess that the score advantage is the main factor in…

OK, fair enough. If you said that in the first place instead of referencing Cleveland's draft record I wouldn't have been all nit-picky. :)