Yes, his polls only one. Read his own damn website: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

Fucking hell. 538 on NYT was about elections. Silver rolled his reputation as a genius into the new site, which was about “everything data”. He hired a lot of people, etc. that’s why I said his reputation is on the line.

Except all of the polls still go through the 538 Adjust-o-matic and there is still plenty of special sauce in that model that adjusts for trend line, momentum, etc. Polls plus adds in some economic data, much of which is already baked into the polls in the first place.

Nate is fighting for his reputation’s life right now. After 2010-2014 he was widely seen as some sort of supergenius. Then he launched 538 which is, to be charitable, uninspiring. And then he completely blew the GOP primaries.

Except PEC doesn’t twist itself in knots, especially compared to 538. Silver is the one overcooking the data here.

No election forecaster says that Clinton is “far ahead,” that’s the same strawman argument Nate Silver uses to defend his toss-up forecast.

It’s not even sensationalism, it’s grading Trump on a curve. Hillary has to be perfect, while Trump simply has to not literally throw feces at Lester Holt. Expectations are a bitch.

I would argue that’s also his weakness, though - he’s too susceptible to having his analysis be colored by his anger at the supporters of a given candidate. He and his compatriot Harry Enten completely lost their cool with Bernie Sanders supporters and it colored all of their coverage from then on. That’s not being…

I was just thinking the same thing. If the media actually covered Trump and Clinton factually, we wouldn’t have a dead heat. The media loves the sensationalism, and goes out of its way to create it.

1. Silver totally fucking blew it in the GOP primary by insisting Trump couldn’t win, so he naturally felt burned and decided to retreat to Pure Data.

I mean, I figure a nationwide election where 30 million people cast votes to pick between two candidates counts as an election, but what do I know?

The irony is that Silver’s original purpose with 538, back when it was just a Blogger site, was to provide a data-driven alternative to horse-race coverage. The problem is that, because 2008, 2012, and most of 2016 have shown a Democrat likely to win, his model was embraced by liberals as this mystic talisman against…

It’s amazing how the media has whipped up a horse race JUST IN TIME for the debates, this has to be perhaps the most coincidental set of circumstances of all time! 

You mean besides the 2016 Democratic Nomination for President of the United States?

I honestly wonder this. Why is she so “unlikable”, especially compared to guys like Romney the vampire capitalist or Bush in 2004, post Iraq fiasco? It can’t just be because she’s a Clinton, as Bill (the impeached, adulterous liar) has high favorability numbers.

Why? She hasn’t done anything that would remotely put her in the same class as Donald Trump.

I don’t follow you. Johnson and Stein are both white.

Lies, racism, misogyny, and galling self-dealing are hardly a new phenomenon in American politics but we should still point out that they are bad.

No articles about Barcelona losing to fucking Alaves??

I feel like I’m more of a Manchester United hater than you are, but even I can’t agree with “haven’t won much of anything in a really long time.” Especially in terms of comparison to the Cowboys.