Any gains from the debate won’t show up in the polls for about a week. It’s too soon to know what the reaction will be, one way or the other.

Yeah, in those first two it happens because those constructions are usually followed by the word “to” and so (in speech) that “-ed” isn’t audible since it gets combined with the leading “t”. So then the listener gets used to hearing it as a present tense construction, and think that that’s the way it’s supposed to be,…

The one that annoys me is when people talk about giving someone “free reign”. The saying is about giving your horse its head, dadgumit, it should be spelled “free rein”.

I heard a poll cited last night where the percentage of people who think that Trump is crazy was larger than the percentage of people who weren’t planning to vote for him.

It’s true that he was already starting to fade in the polls. But it did make it impossible for him to have any kind of comeback.

It also wouldn’t surprise me if he legitimately had ADD. He definitely shows the signs. (Of course, I think many of our recent presidential candidates have had ADD.)

I don’t think of the primaries as a *separate* election. There was one Presidential election in 2008 and Obama won it...everyone else lost it.

Weird. I have very strong memories of reading 538 in an office I left in 2006. But if it wasn’t launched then I guess I’m just getting old.

Huh. That’s...really bizarre. I have very strong memories of reading 538 in an office I left in 2006. But I totally believe that citation.

He actually launched 538 ahead of the 2004 election.

Now, you’re forgetting the part where he got excoriated for predicting that Bush was going to win in 2004, and then was praised afterwards for being one of the “few” to see that coming. That was *why* he was over praised in 2008 and 2012 -- because he’d already proven he’d call it like he saw it.

I agree with your main point, but he didn’t get his start in 2008. I was reading 538 during the 2004 election.

Yes exactly.

Oh. I don’t think of the primaries as a separate election, more like the preliminaries. But I guess you can count it like that.

In 2008? She lost that one.

Rigged is the wrong word.

Part of the reason he is more likable is because he just has “it” -- personal charisma.

I’m sure he means two consecutive elections *that she has run in*. When talking about a candidate, you only look at their elections.

The reason why she is disliked by so many people is because the right loathes her and the left doesn’t trust her. (For whatever reason, the right doesn’t seem to dislike their centrists in the same way -- at least not until they are out of office.) Both of these are legacies from the years of the Clinton presidency,…

Also Subaru.