It really is bizarre that "He obviously doesn't mean anything he says! He's lying! You can't believe him!" is the rallying cry of his supporters.

A core will be happy no matter what he does, and liberals really need to not worry about them. Just like a core of liberals won't be happy no matter what he does.

Ravi messed up before by sleeping with a woman he found kind of annoying because eh.

This. Trump and Brexit were polling within a few points; what was freakish was declaring "Well that is a guarantee of victory, margin of error isn't a thing."

An early example of "Do not invade Russia in winter."

They'll blame Obama for the sun rising. These are not the people to try and convince with the rational facts.

Last I heard his story was that he'd only been in office about 60 days. (I think the theory is not 'weekends off' but 'because obviously no one expected us to do stuff right off'.)

That's going to be split between people who think he is totally doing an awesome job, and those who think he might start doing an awesome job as soon as he figures out how all the things no one realized were complicated are actually complicated, and those who were betting he wouldn't do much harm and would nominate a…

Huh. I always pictured you using a trebuchet.

I am encouraged by his angry special election tweeting. Should be easy to get himself deeply involved in all of these races, whatever dignified strategy Ryan and Priebus try to put in place.

Pfff. Then we would have to appoint a Chinese ambassador, and is there really any foreign policy benefit there? Next you'll want us to appoint an undersecretary for East Asia, and ambassadors to South Korea and Japan.

Oh, going forward: It's also really hard to poll congressional districts because they are so small and it's hard to tell if your respondent is in them. (My computer believes itself to be in a town 25 miles from where I live. I don't know why this is so—it's not like it's the nearest large town, far from it.) Polling…

It really should be emphasized that national polls were pretty accurate (allowing for a few points margin of error—which, jeez, ±3 or 4 shouldn't be some huge shock, especially when the actual result was ±2 from predictions) while people reading the polls were wacky and discovered that everything fit their…

Candidate Trump explicitly praised Kim, Saddam, and Putin for jailing or assassinating anyone who tried to work against them, which he views as the true definition of strength. Erdogan is right in that mold.

Key to the 2006 and 08 victories was Dean's 50 state strategy—they had good candidates in districts that a year out looked like a long-shot. Last year, when things were swinging against Trump, there was a lot of awkward "Man, too bad we didn't run someone on the Dem side in this district now that it looks within…

But… surely if the far left put up sufficiently pure candidates in those deep red districts, then the silent majority that agrees with them would sweep those candidates to victory.

It seems the far left shall ever be stymied by the failure of mere mortals to be all that their fantasy league candidates would be.

I watched them in real time as they came out, and am about the same age as the leads. Before Sunset is the most moving, as it's just one long conversation in real time, about small twists and decisions that explain where you land in a decade.

Logan.

I understand how NK has purposefully exploited its reputation for irrationality in order to play a game of brinksmanship that deters consequences.