I'm not actually looking to set up a bet with a stranger who knows how far away - i was honestly just curious what level of confidence your rank speculation had. I don't want to take your money, and quite frankly I hope that you're right, but I know you aren't.

So giving him two years for each book - it took him how many years to figure out how to write them? This is what makes you feel he's going to reverse speed (even though he was already slowing down with ASOS)?

Right, well, my math does suck right there. Still, 26 months… What's the amount of money you'd lay on that?

Oh come on, King took a break from a series to continue to crank out books at a breakneck pace, then returned to that series to crank out books at a breakneck pace - you're comparing apples with industrial juicers.

So stuff that has already been written.

Would you be willing to put money on your prediction for the next book's release in about 15 months?

Bakker's series is pretty brutal, and yeah, it does spend time on big questions, but it's not a philosophical tract or anything. The issues it tackles are pretty central to the story he tells, which is an interesting take on the "Chosen One builds his Empire".

I've read quite a few of those reviews, and the most scathingly accurate tend to be the three star reviews. The one stars are a bit bitter (though they do tend to be loaded down with actual gripes) and the five stars tend to be loaded with "People just haters, it wuz awesome!"

yeah - but that was the first time he's been really sick in a long time - and fans have been bitching at least since Jordan croaked.

The dude is healthy as a horse, and not as old as he looks. I don't think it's really all that much of an issue at this point.

I don't think Mieville owes much of anything to GRRM, they are in two extremely different categories.

Dude, we get it, you lurve! GRRM! But it ain't high literature - I'm glad you find it deeply textured, but it isn't fucking Joyce (something I'm sure you agree with). People on Amazon have their opinions on both sides, and GRRM has a history of being kind of dismissive and shitty to critical fans (sock puppets and…

Yeah, and it was going to take a year tops for AWDD. Just sayin'

He just takes more and more time for each book. And obviously having "a chunk done already" is utterly meaningless. He also has yet to even start writing, and he's touring all over, and he's got obligations to the show that are more immediate (writing an episode, etc.) I don't see him breaking any speed records with…

That seems… optimistic.

My problem with that is that it would suck (re: actors aging 5 years in on season) and Martin doesn't just take a little while to write - "Dragons" was 66% done (he told us) when A Feast for Crows came out, and yet… that last third (which I know it was a lot more than that with the rewrites and add-ons) took how many…

Seriously, there's no way Martin keeps Jon croaked. People can marvel at his willingness to kill characters, but he's gotten predictable about bringing them back as well. I would be way more impressed with Martin if he did kill off Snow, but it ain't going to happen.

So does any one know what HBO can do once (inevitably) their series catches up to Martin's books? Do they have the license to use Martin's blueprints for the next books, or do they have to wait for a decade between seasons? Or do they get to write their own conclusions?

That's why we have to give it it's own nomenclature, if we admitted it was a "mustache" we'd have to deal with the metaphysical implications of being able to see a Platonic Form.

sorta Ryan Smyth mullet with an attempted Parros-stache?