Here's why "Argo" will win:  Everybody you know likes it.   Think of the other eight nominated movies.   You might think each were brilliant, but you probably have at least one friend who found each of them to be either overrated, pretentious, boring, pro-torture and/or French.   But you probably don't know anyone who…

"The occasional Silence Of The Lambs or Black Hawk Down does open during dumping-ground season"

HR'd for language.

Because you were too busy watching "Corner Gas" and "Just For Laughs Gags."

I've been to Stratford (and Shaw) many times, but I don't think it affects the way I like the show.  I think you'd probably have to WORK for a theatre festival to really have that kind of perspective.   I don't think showing up once a year to see a play gives one particular insight.

"A three-disc version of the groundbreaking Al Jolson film offers a chance to explore its important and troubling legacy."

This will make Terry David Mulligan sad.

No Toronto yuppies or Leonard Cohen fans have ever moved to places like Burlington or Oakville.   They all live in the Annex and ride bicycles exclusively.   You're right.   Cohen better hope he has a lot of fans in Welland and Dundas.

You expected an enthusiastic crowd in Toronto?

Well, here's five non-commercially branded Canadian venues I've come up with at random:

Leonard Cohen doesn't do small cities.   He only does metropolises.

What did Fredericton ever do to you, Cohen?

To make it more surreal (at the time), by the time the special first aired, Bing Crosby was dead.

Is there a scene where there are four black people in a Jeep, then all of a sudden one of them sees Lincoln, looks awed, stands up and takes off his sunglasses?

Don't quite get why everyone was so shocked that Ben Affleck is a good director.

Best Picture thought process will go like this:  "ZDT" is the best movie of the year objectively, but is it advocating torture?  So "Lincoln" was nice, but Spielberg again?   Solution:  "Argo."   Everybody you know liked it a lot, so … good enough.

It's ironic, but everything I've read about "Amour" on critics top ten lists has made me less and less likely to see it.    To summarize, "one of the best movies of the year.  But an absolutely horrifying viewing experience.  A must see!"

Surprised L'il Jon didn't get a co-writing credit for the window/wall sequence.

If I may paraphrase something I might have said when I was 7,  "Lincoln" will win because it has the most talking in it.

I saw "The Postman" around this time fifteen years ago, and you know what?   Surprisingly not awful.   Don't know that I could get through it on television, but it worked in theatres.