China has *explicitly* stated that if NK attacks us first, they will remain neutral in the resultant conflict.

Nothing about a second Korean War will make Trump a hero. Everybody loved Truman, right?

Well, assuming accuracy (that’s a big assumption, they also don’t have ‘swarm’ missiles so it THAAD is actually very useful, unlike if it were China or Russia), and a very generous 10 KT yield (more than anything they’ve tested)....

Pragmatism taken to its most extreme conclusion. It won’t make ya feel good, but I can grudgingly respect it. It makes logical sense, in that way that Spock definitely pissed Kirk off occasionally.

Ah, well. Gotchya.

Eh... you’re kinda misunderstanding where I’m going with it all. People have this vision in their head of this global nuclear holocaust, where the whole world burns in sudden, horrific hellfire. I’m trying to dissuade that alarmist position, but I’ve never implied that the ramifications wouldn’t be anything other than…

I never will. I have friends stationed in SK and myself am on the west coast, ‘in the line of fire.’ I’m merely being a grim-faced realist.

I am at least reasonably confident in the US’ ability to interdict an ultra-long range ICBM like this, particularly considering the NK does not appear to have any kind of technology necessary for ‘swarming’ missiles, which is what makes THAAD pretty much useless against Russia or China.

You’re absolutely correct in that there would be a huge backlash, I never said there wouldn’t be. Indeed, many of my posts explicitly describe how I’d expect China to seize the opportunity to assert its economic dominance.

As yourself rationally: what would China have to gain from launching a retaliatory nuclear strike against its primary economic partner if they themselves were not actually attacked? Once NK’s regime is assured to destabilize, they have no reason to maintain the pretense of being an ally to them.

NK cannot hit DC. You are perfectly safe. This is what I’m talking about, baseless fears keep people from approaching this crazy situation rationally.

And I live in a major urban California area too, I’m not exactly out of the line of fire myself, but frankly you should be more concerned for SK.

Because it doesn’t want NK to have nuclear weapons...? Uh, the cat’s out of that particular bag.

How big of an EMP do you think an 8 kilo-ton nuke is gonna create? Not enough to knock the US offline, that’s for sure. Keeping in mind that an EMP would have to be a high-altitude explosion over the US, and NK’s best missile can only *barely* reach the US at all.

Pretty much. China doesn’t need to go to war with us, they just need to assert their economic dominance and make it full on fact.

Hell naw. The only reason China backs them (and remember, they just signed off on sanctions themselves, and have divisions of tanks pointed at their border) is because they don’t want the regime and the country to destabilize since it’d create a massive refugee crises.

Oh god yes, absolutely, everything you’ve said is pretty much spot on.

Pretty much. America would ultimately end up economically isolated, China would likely lead the charge in imposing sanctions on the US in some fashion.

I’m more just being a grim realist about this while trying to avoid being full on alarmist. Tempering my horror at the whole situation...

Emphasis on the ‘still horrifying.’ I’m being a grim realist about it, is all.