Jim Pagels
jimpagels
1/3/15
1:55 AM
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Well, it's zero-sum. So if you have a system where TDs are extremely valuable/exciting, then that means every other part of the field is extremely low-scoring/boring. Why should I get excited about a mostly (fantasy) meaningless 15-yard run by my running back in his own territory? It's only 1.5 points, which is almost Read more

12/31/14
12:54 PM
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Well, in terms of the 1 or 2 yard gain on first down vs. the same gain on 3rd and long, rather than "more valuable," what you really mean is "less damaging," since both are negative EPA plays. In actual play-by-play EPA, this down/context situation is accounted for. In my "average of all events" EPA chart, it's not Read more

12/31/14
12:23 PM
1

In actual play-by-play EPA, field position and down are all factored in (i.e. a yard on 4th-and-1 is far more valuable than a yard on 1st-and-10). My chart is an average of all situations, so no, down and situation are not taken into account—though they certainly aren't in standard scoring either.

12/31/14
1:37 AM
1

Teams don't draw up 1- or 2-yard plays, though (barring goal line or 3rd/4th-and-short situations of course). If you only gained 1 or 2 yards and couldn't break any tackles to go further, then you hurt your team. That shouldn't be a positive. A basketball player who shoots 2-12 isn't more valuable than one who shoots Read more

12/31/14
1:01 AM
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The data (which is aggregated from decades of NFL games) says the EPA from 1st-and-goal from the 1 is 5.96. That seems to indicate that teams convert from that field position to a TD a very high percentage of the time. (Remember, the system accounts for the opponent's field position after kickoff, so converting a TD Read more

12/31/14
12:57 AM
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The difference between 0 and -1 is the exact same as the difference between 9 and 8, and no rational person should count those as different situations (though I realize not all fantasy players are rational...)

Considering that the number of starting slots in a fantasy league represent, idk, 50% of the playing time for Read more

12/30/14
9:35 PM
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Not gaining any yards after catch on a one- or two-yard pass is a bad play.

12/30/14
9:34 PM
1

Gaining one yard is not terribly difficult. Young benefited simply from opportunity much much more so than his skill in being able to gain one yard.

12/30/14
9:33 PM
1

My league has officially decided to score kick FGs or extra points as 999 points.

12/30/14
9:31 PM
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You don't need an algorithm if you use my table of average EPA per event data. It's simple addition just like current standard scoring—the numbers just aren't nice round ones in 1s and 6s.

12/30/14
9:30 PM
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Good point. Ideally, there would be some bonus for drawing (or throwing passes that draw) penalties too.

12/30/14
9:27 PM
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You'd be surprised how incredibly accurate FG kickers are. A kicker making less than 75% of his 40-49 yarders is a bad kicker.

12/30/14
9:15 PM
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Partial points for completions and receptions would be inaccurate, actually, given that one long play is better than two short plays summing to the same length. Instead, there should be more bonuses for longer plays. Read more

8/28/14
11:56 PM
1

The reality is that the "mouthbreathing SportsCenter fans" are the next audience the NHL needs to attract, though. They already have the diehards. Now they need to expand to the casual fans if they really want to expand revenues.

6/9/14
2:43 PM
1

Oh wow, great point. Total brain cramp on me. Well, hopefully those will somewhat cancel out? But yeah, probably don't tell us much. I'll clarify. Thanks for pointing that out.