There’s the concern these tests may not always detect the truly covid-19 specific antibodies, but rather antibodies to other coronaviruses, which gets to the accuracy problem I alluded to. But this is right otherwise!
Just updated this with more context provided by the lead author. While it’s true that patients in this study did get other antiviral therapies, none of them had shown much success in other studies. Again, as I take pains to point out several times, this doesn’t mean hydroxychloroquine can’t be an useful treatment for… Read more
To be clear, I did try reaching out to the contact info of the authors listed in the paper to clarify these sorts of questions. But it’s been understandably hard to get in touch with anyone in China right now. Will obviously update the article if I hear back!
There was at least one since retracted research paper arguing this! https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/
Many of these are newer cases, including people who haven’t started to show symptoms. While the death rate is almost certainly lower than current documented projections, it will take weeks for many of these cases to be serious/deadly. And of course, the more hidden cases, the more they infect and the more this spirals… Read more
It’s certainly lower than the current rate, yes. But some of these “undocumented” cases were people who did become sick, but just weren’t yet at the time of counting. And the death rate will also depend on how massive the first surges of illness are and whether they’ll overwhelm a country’s healthcare system.
Things could work out with limited damage to the U.S, sure. But a widespread outbreak, even assuming the conservative South Korea fatality rate, could still kill many times more Americans than the flu does annually, while around 20 percent of victims would have a severe case that required serious medical care.
The flu is usually seasonal at different times of the year for different countries, controllable (to an extent) through vaccination, and not everyone is susceptible to it. That means not everyone in the world is at risk of catching it during the U.S. winter, for instance. Sometimes a strain comes along and breaks… Read more
That’s MISS Climate Change to ya, bud!
making some good points!
A few things: All of those outbreaks definitely caused a lot of damage to the areas affected. The 2009 swine flu pandemic wasn’t too deadly but still killed up to a half million ppl, for instance, while SARS was very deadly to ppl in China but luckily never became too transmissible. Right now, it’s really tough to say… Read more
having a real one today, bud
the original paper about it also got retracted by authors! https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/