WEBVTT 1 00:00:05.940 --> 00:00:07.500 - Reports are saying that Kamala Harris wants 2 00:00:07.500 --> 00:00:10.740 to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. 3 00:00:10.740 --> 00:00:12.930 How do you see that affecting markets? 4 00:00:12.930 --> 00:00:14.940 - Look, the, it used to be at 35 5 00:00:14.940 --> 00:00:17.700 and Trump cut it down to 21, so it would take you half 6 00:00:17.700 --> 00:00:18.900 of the way back. 7 00:00:18.900 --> 00:00:21.750 Well, to see, first off, is it a politically popular move? 8 00:00:21.750 --> 00:00:24.840 And second off, does it suddenly become a lot less popular 9 00:00:24.840 --> 00:00:27.960 if the s and p reacts to the downside in anticipation of it? 10 00:00:27.960 --> 00:00:29.550 Right now, the markets are making new highs 11 00:00:29.550 --> 00:00:33.030 or at least kind of bopping around the 5,600 area. 12 00:00:33.030 --> 00:00:36.240 So right now it looks like it's kind of a 13 00:00:36.240 --> 00:00:37.830 non-event for markets. 14 00:00:37.830 --> 00:00:38.970 I say that with a big asterisk 15 00:00:38.970 --> 00:00:40.230 'cause if you think about the top of the s 16 00:00:40.230 --> 00:00:42.690 and p 500, that's a lot of those companies 17 00:00:42.690 --> 00:00:46.770 that are basically parking some sort of domicile in Dublin 18 00:00:46.770 --> 00:00:48.240 to escape the tax, the tax 19 00:00:48.240 --> 00:00:49.560 authority here in the United States. 20 00:00:49.560 --> 00:00:52.350 So it might be a risk, I would say namely for tech names. 21 00:00:52.350 --> 00:00:57.060 - Kamala has also proposed a ban on food price 22 00:00:57.060 --> 00:00:59.850 gouging and grocery price gouging. 23 00:00:59.850 --> 00:01:03.750 Do you see that affecting grocery stocks or big food stocks? 24 00:01:03.750 --> 00:01:06.390 - Yeah, and, and you have, you know, Mars just announced 25 00:01:06.390 --> 00:01:09.150 that it was buying ANOVA in this news cycle, 26 00:01:09.150 --> 00:01:11.070 and that was maybe the number one 27 00:01:11.070 --> 00:01:12.840 or number two deal of the year in terms of the, 28 00:01:12.840 --> 00:01:14.580 the entire market. 29 00:01:15.750 --> 00:01:19.680 You know, we, we got that, a whiff of that news last week. 30 00:01:19.680 --> 00:01:21.900 We're looking inside our largest fund 31 00:01:21.900 --> 00:01:25.260 and at the top of our largest fund, among the top 20 names, 32 00:01:25.260 --> 00:01:28.080 you know, Pepsi, Coke, Proctor and Gamble. 33 00:01:28.080 --> 00:01:31.590 And then now you have for the first time since Nixon, 34 00:01:31.590 --> 00:01:33.930 really a discussion about price controls. 35 00:01:33.930 --> 00:01:37.200 Not wage and price controls like, like Nixon, 36 00:01:37.200 --> 00:01:38.370 but price controls. 37 00:01:38.370 --> 00:01:42.150 And I think we're doing this interview, it's the middle 38 00:01:42.150 --> 00:01:44.550 of the DNC, we have a neck 39 00:01:44.550 --> 00:01:47.640 and neck coin toss election on our hands. 40 00:01:47.640 --> 00:01:49.050 Sometimes you get up there and say things 41 00:01:49.050 --> 00:01:50.190 that were not properly vetted. 42 00:01:51.270 --> 00:01:54.180 You can see basically, I don't think 43 00:01:54.180 --> 00:01:55.950 that there's an economist on planet Earth 44 00:01:55.950 --> 00:01:57.000 that wants to support that. 45 00:01:57.000 --> 00:01:58.950 You can see Austin Gouldsby, for example, 46 00:01:58.950 --> 00:02:00.450 came out like one minute later 47 00:02:00.450 --> 00:02:03.180 and basically separated himself from those remarks. 48 00:02:03.180 --> 00:02:07.800 So Staples, food plays, groceries, 49 00:02:07.800 --> 00:02:09.270 these types of concepts. 50 00:02:09.270 --> 00:02:10.530 Let's get into September 51 00:02:10.530 --> 00:02:13.590 and let's see if this is still a policy plank 52 00:02:13.590 --> 00:02:14.790 of the Democratic Party. 53 00:02:14.790 --> 00:02:17.910 I think it might just kind of get swept away. We'll see. 54 00:02:17.910 --> 00:02:20.070 - Are they gouging right now? No, 55 00:02:21.995 --> 00:02:22.995 - No. 56 00:02:22.995 --> 00:02:24.510 The prices are set in the free market. 57 00:02:24.510 --> 00:02:28.650 I mean, if you don't like what you're getting at Walmart, 58 00:02:28.650 --> 00:02:29.760 you can go to Costco 59 00:02:29.760 --> 00:02:31.800 and if you don't like that, you can, I mean, 60 00:02:31.800 --> 00:02:34.650 even if you're thinking outside, you can go to Dollar Tree 61 00:02:34.650 --> 00:02:37.380 or Dollar General, that is groceries as well. 62 00:02:37.380 --> 00:02:39.120 You can go into a CVS and buy food. 63 00:02:39.120 --> 00:02:40.380 You can buy, go into Walgreens. 64 00:02:40.380 --> 00:02:42.300 Those are not grocery stores. 65 00:02:42.300 --> 00:02:45.390 And if, yeah, look, I don't know, we own Proctor and Gamble. 66 00:02:45.390 --> 00:02:46.980 Just using that as an example. 67 00:02:46.980 --> 00:02:50.250 If Proctor and Gamble decides it wants to gouge on diapers, 68 00:02:50.250 --> 00:02:52.410 then Kimberly Clark is going to steal from them. 69 00:02:52.410 --> 00:02:56.280 And so it's not in your best interest as a mega corporation 70 00:02:56.280 --> 00:03:00.280 and a free society to gouge again, Hey, we're trying 71 00:03:00.280 --> 00:03:03.880 to win a 50 50 election, go on the stump. 72 00:03:03.880 --> 00:03:07.480 And sooner or later I would hypothesize the advisors 73 00:03:07.480 --> 00:03:08.950 to Harris will say, enough. 74 00:03:08.950 --> 00:03:10.270 With the price gouging thing, 75 00:03:10.270 --> 00:03:14.650 - I maybe a a, a big concern for voters is the cost 76 00:03:14.650 --> 00:03:17.230 of things because of inflation. 77 00:03:17.230 --> 00:03:18.490 And then that's a, that's one 78 00:03:18.490 --> 00:03:19.870 that they could identify with maybe. 79 00:03:20.770 --> 00:03:22.300 - Well then we shouldn't have created so much money. 80 00:03:22.300 --> 00:03:25.360 Supply inflation is caused 81 00:03:25.360 --> 00:03:29.020 by the money supply which went spiking inexorably higher. 82 00:03:29.020 --> 00:03:30.700 Outside of a few things 83 00:03:30.700 --> 00:03:32.440 that you could say would be short term shocks. 84 00:03:32.440 --> 00:03:34.210 For example, total lack 85 00:03:34.210 --> 00:03:36.825 of Russian natural gas into Germany sent their 86 00:03:36.825 --> 00:03:37.930 inflation sky highs. 87 00:03:37.930 --> 00:03:39.970 You could say maybe it wasn't such a monetary effect 88 00:03:39.970 --> 00:03:43.750 for them, but generally speaking there was mass massive 89 00:03:43.750 --> 00:03:47.230 fiscal and monetary stimulus that occurred during Covid. 90 00:03:47.230 --> 00:03:49.810 And then that's why we ended up with a nine handle on CPI. 91 00:03:49.810 --> 00:03:51.100 And actually, if you look at the data, 92 00:03:51.100 --> 00:03:53.080 it should have been probably a 12 or a 13. 93 00:03:53.080 --> 00:03:55.300 It was just that the housing data wasn't fully being picked 94 00:03:55.300 --> 00:03:57.970 up by the CPI and now needs to play catch up 95 00:03:57.970 --> 00:04:00.460 and get it in, in probably the next year to three.