WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.070 --> 00:00:02.685
- What's next for Ozempic
maker Novo Nordisk?

2
00:00:02.685 --> 00:00:04.795
We're talking with Jared Holtz of Mizuho

3
00:00:04.795 --> 00:00:06.395
to find out, hi Jared.

4
00:00:11.015 --> 00:00:13.115
And what do you think
happens in, in the next five

5
00:00:13.115 --> 00:00:15.395
to 10 years if these
drugs do really take off

6
00:00:15.395 --> 00:00:16.975
and become mass?

7
00:00:16.975 --> 00:00:19.495
Do we become our, our
thinnest sexiest selves

8
00:00:19.495 --> 00:00:21.415
as a country, as, as a world,

9
00:00:21.415 --> 00:00:23.745
- For most patients that
are looking for a quick fix,

10
00:00:23.745 --> 00:00:26.595
this is gonna be much more akin

11
00:00:26.595 --> 00:00:30.655
to being on a fad diet on
the drug for a few months,

12
00:00:30.655 --> 00:00:33.675
see some improvement, you
know, wean yourself off of it.

13
00:00:33.675 --> 00:00:37.515
Hopefully make some better
choices in terms of exercise

14
00:00:37.515 --> 00:00:39.315
and diet and, you know,

15
00:00:39.315 --> 00:00:41.865
general food intake and
things of that nature.

16
00:00:41.865 --> 00:00:45.015
Obviously I think the population's
gonna be thinner in time,

17
00:00:45.015 --> 00:00:47.315
but a lot of it just depends on, you know,

18
00:00:47.315 --> 00:00:50.775
behavioral patterns of, of
the patients that are on them,

19
00:00:50.775 --> 00:00:53.305
you know, how quickly
they snap back, you know,

20
00:00:53.305 --> 00:00:55.675
once they've lost weight, their tendency

21
00:00:55.675 --> 00:00:57.655
to wanna stay on the drug,

22
00:00:57.655 --> 00:00:59.255
or if not, you know,

23
00:00:59.255 --> 00:01:01.515
at least maintain their new lower weight.

24
00:01:01.515 --> 00:01:02.675
I think that's gonna be key,

25
00:01:03.575 --> 00:01:06.785
but it, it's very clear that,
that these drugs are having

26
00:01:06.785 --> 00:01:10.955
very, very substantial
positive benefits on underlying

27
00:01:10.955 --> 00:01:13.875
cardiovascular health,
neurovascular health,

28
00:01:13.875 --> 00:01:16.055
these are all things
that have been, you know,

29
00:01:16.055 --> 00:01:17.895
widely published throughout the year.

30
00:01:17.895 --> 00:01:20.275
And we're gonna see more, we're
gonna see some sleep apnea

31
00:01:20.275 --> 00:01:23.875
data this coming year,
osteoarthritis data for patients

32
00:01:23.875 --> 00:01:26.875
that have knee issues, a
whole array of, you know,

33
00:01:26.875 --> 00:01:28.985
various medical conditions that

34
00:01:28.985 --> 00:01:30.475
when patients are on these drugs

35
00:01:30.475 --> 00:01:32.095
because of how good they are,

36
00:01:32.095 --> 00:01:33.995
you get reductions across the board.

37
00:01:33.995 --> 00:01:37.435
And, and another one that
I think people are already

38
00:01:37.435 --> 00:01:39.475
starting to pay attention to,
though I don't believe it's

39
00:01:39.475 --> 00:01:41.615
happening for another,
at least six months,

40
00:01:41.615 --> 00:01:44.795
is gonna be whether there's
any reduction in Alzheimer's

41
00:01:44.795 --> 00:01:47.915
disease or neurological
conditions, as these tend to be

42
00:01:48.855 --> 00:01:50.615
anti-inflammatory in some way.

43
00:01:50.615 --> 00:01:52.375
- You mentioned the possibilities

44
00:01:52.375 --> 00:01:55.315
for Alzheimer's treatment,
which is amazing.

45
00:01:55.315 --> 00:01:59.535
I know there's been talk about
its use in addiction cases.

46
00:01:59.535 --> 00:02:01.035
Do you think that we are at some kind

47
00:02:01.035 --> 00:02:04.195
of tipping point in
pharma research in the r

48
00:02:04.195 --> 00:02:07.575
and d that allowed this
kind of breakthrough

49
00:02:07.575 --> 00:02:10.815
or possible breakthrough
if the data bears it out

50
00:02:10.815 --> 00:02:12.435
for this to happen?

51
00:02:12.435 --> 00:02:15.575
I mean, could you have
conceived five years ago of,

52
00:02:15.575 --> 00:02:19.425
of pharma finding a a,
a wonder drug like this?

53
00:02:19.425 --> 00:02:21.235
- Yeah, this is a rarity for sure.

54
00:02:21.235 --> 00:02:24.095
I mean, we've seen it
historically with the statins

55
00:02:24.095 --> 00:02:26.715
and hepatitis C.

56
00:02:26.715 --> 00:02:30.705
There, there have been categories
where the street has been

57
00:02:30.705 --> 00:02:31.795
very intrigued and,

58
00:02:31.795 --> 00:02:33.515
and you've seen value, you know,

59
00:02:33.515 --> 00:02:35.895
valuations really rise quickly.

60
00:02:35.895 --> 00:02:37.675
But this is the most notable, I mean,

61
00:02:37.675 --> 00:02:41.315
this one drug class has
basically spurred on

62
00:02:42.255 --> 00:02:47.015
two companies that are now
worth roughly $500 billion

63
00:02:47.015 --> 00:02:50.615
and the second closest is
less than half of that.

64
00:02:50.615 --> 00:02:55.615
And so we've really kind
of, you know, re maneuvered

65
00:02:55.735 --> 00:02:59.395
Novo and Lilly to the top
of the food chain in pharma

66
00:02:59.395 --> 00:03:01.865
that used to be kind of
dominated by Merck and Pfizer

67
00:03:01.865 --> 00:03:03.085
and maybe a couple others.

68
00:03:04.225 --> 00:03:07.865
But now that ranking has
been resorted, so to speak.

69
00:03:07.865 --> 00:03:11.615
So we really haven't seen
this much value creation.

70
00:03:11.615 --> 00:03:13.345
We've seen stocks go up,

71
00:03:13.345 --> 00:03:14.485
but not to the tune

72
00:03:14.485 --> 00:03:15.725
of several hundred billion

73
00:03:15.725 --> 00:03:17.555
dollars over the course of a year.

74
00:03:17.555 --> 00:03:19.245
- What is the downside here?

75
00:03:19.245 --> 00:03:21.235
- I mean, from a financial
perspective, I think it's,

76
00:03:21.235 --> 00:03:23.505
it's insurance pushback over time.

77
00:03:23.505 --> 00:03:26.505
If the revenue sort of gets out of hand

78
00:03:26.505 --> 00:03:30.945
and managed care cannot
offset it with higher premiums

79
00:03:30.945 --> 00:03:33.345
or reducing access to other drugs

80
00:03:33.345 --> 00:03:36.905
and it becomes problematic,
that would be one.

81
00:03:36.905 --> 00:03:39.145
The second would be pricing.

82
00:03:39.145 --> 00:03:41.665
You know, the, the government
has already thrown out,

83
00:03:41.665 --> 00:03:43.305
you know, a fairly significant plan

84
00:03:43.305 --> 00:03:45.665
to reduce drug costs over the next,

85
00:03:45.665 --> 00:03:46.805
you know, five to 10 years.

86
00:03:46.805 --> 00:03:49.685
And really in perpetuity at
some point over the next couple

87
00:03:49.685 --> 00:03:52.905
of years, Ozempic is likely
gonna be on that list, right?

88
00:03:52.905 --> 00:03:56.325
So for patients, for
investors looking, you know,

89
00:03:56.325 --> 00:04:00.285
at the stocks once the
obesity drugs are, are kind

90
00:04:00.285 --> 00:04:04.285
of like under consideration
for price negotiation.

91
00:04:04.285 --> 00:04:05.935
I think that's the second thing.

92
00:04:05.935 --> 00:04:07.325
- We'll leave it there.
But thank you Jared,

93
00:04:07.325 --> 00:04:08.765
and we'll check back with you some

94
00:04:08.765 --> 00:04:10.805
of this data trickles in next year.

95
00:04:10.805 --> 00:04:15.175
- Absolutely. Thank you.
- For more, check out qz.com.